Atlanta Braves Soon to Invite International Intrigue
Atlanta Braves starting pitcher and former International signee Williams Perez. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports
The Atlanta Braves will shortly be undertaking two significant events that have the potential to determine the shape of the franchise for the next 10-16 years. Let me be clear: this is neither hype nor an overstatement.
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I am not referring to the construction of the Cobb County stadium: instead I’m referring to the MLB Amateur Draft (June 8-10) plus the 2015-16 International Signing Period, which opens on July 2nd.
The Braves appear to be positioning themselves to “go for it” during both events in a manner not seen in quite some time.
- In the draft, the Braves have earned or otherwise acquired six picks in the first 3 rounds (105 picks total in those rounds). That’s more than any other club. The first two occur at positions 14 and 28 in the first round.
- As important as that is, this next International Signing Period could be even bigger.
Big? Really?
Check out this Q&A quote from Ben Badler, National Writer for BaseballAmerica.com:
"Roger (Greenville, SC): Do you see the Braves going over their international bonus pool this July 2? I’ve seen them linked to 2 players that combined could be about as much as they can trade for. Ben Badler: I do think they will be in the market to trade for additional pool space, based on the players I’ve heard them strongly connected to. The bigger things I’m hearing on Atlanta is they want to go big—I mean, BIG—on international spending in 2016. Like, what the Yankees did last year kind of big. Given how many teams are going to be facing signing restrictions in 2016 for going over their pools, I’m a big proponent of that strategy."
Int’l signee Julio Teheran. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports
Let’s look at the facts…
- Atlanta stole Gordon Blakeley from the Yankees – the top international scout from a very busy team in this market.
- Atlanta already used a trade with the Cubs to add International slot space (3 slots) for the 2014-15 period
- At least 8 players were inked during the 2014-15 period.
- There are teams that will soon have slots to trade that can’t use them, so I definitely expect more action here from Atlanta
I’ll pause here to mention the procedures currently in play for what we’re talking about here:
- ‘International players’ mean any free agent 16 years and older that is not eligible for the US Draft and isn’t a US resident.
- Starting on July 2nd, teams may spend a set amount of funds – a ‘pool’ – which is based on their order of finish in the prior year. There are 4 slots plus a base amount (now around $750K).
- Teams can trade up to half of their total pool dollars, but must do this on a slot-by-slot basis when they do. If their 4 slots are valued at $1.5m, $1m, $500K and $200K, then any trade must involve one of those slot values in its entirety.
- If you want to add more slots for your team, your maximum is 150% of your original allocation.
- Any team with unused slots from the 2014-15 signing period can trade those now – they will expire after July 1.
- Slots don’t equal “players” – you can spend your money in any manner.
- 2015-16 slots may be traded beginning on July 2. Expect that to be a busy day.
- If you spend more than you are allocated by 15%, you incur a penalty: 2 years of probation in which your team is not allowed to spend more than $300K on any international player.
- If that doesn’t sound like a huge penalty, then that fully explains why teams like the Yankees have snickered at the rules and abused the process by signing a boatload of players in 2014-15… figuring the penalty won’t matter.
How This Could Play Out
Int’l signee Mauricio Cabrera. Mandatory Credit: Reinhold Matay-USA TODAY Sports
The Braves have already been linked to two kids that are ranked on the International Top 30 list for the next signing wave. We also know that they have an allocation of $2,458,400 in pool monies (15th highest to start). If you project that upward via trades, then we’re looking at a maximum of $3,687,600.
How big is that? In the 2014-15 signing period, Atlanta had the 3rd smallest pool at $1,897,900 (which is why the $832K acquired from the Cubs was huge). If they are successful via trades, they could double that base figure from last year.
Leveraging a maximum pool allocation makes sense for this Summer: some bigger-spending clubs will be excluded from the higher-quality players since they are in the penalty box for 2 years. This includes the Yankees, Red Sox, and Angels. Note that the Dodgers and Cubs will be in play – but reports suggest that they already have tentative agreements with multiple players that will exclude them next July.
So while I do believe the Braves are going to go big Internationally, I don’t believe they will go so far as to hit the penalty number this Summer… for if they do so, that will significantly reduce the competition for players in 2016-17 once all of those clubs mentioned above are on the sidelines.
That means 2 strong years of bringing in top International talent – starting in July.
At the top, I mentioned that this could impact the Braves for the next 10-16 years. Some of these 16-year-olds that are about to ink their first pro contracts will hit the majors roughly at ages 22-26 (6-10 years from now). Add on 6 years of team control, and that means Blakeley and the rest of the Braves’ scouting department are looking 16 years into the future in an attempt to project the value of the players they want to acquire.
At least in international market, this is more about pure scouting, contacts, relationships, and cash…you don’t have to wait for your turn to come up in the draft… at least not yet. It’s a great way to build/rebuild a club.
It does appear that Atlanta intends to maximize their opportunity. The dividends will pay off way down the road, but should do so significantly.
Intrigued yet?