Atlanta Braves Actively Shopping Julio Teheran with Cubs

Cubs right fielder Jorge Soler (68) singles during the fourth inning against the San Diego Padres at Petco Park. Mandatory Credit: Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports

In a story by Cubs beat writer Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago-Sun Times, the Braves are actively pursuing the Cubs with the intent of trading Julio Teheran before today’s trade deadline.

This move would be in stark contrast to to the monster trade made with the Dodgers between Wednesday and Thursday that sent Alex Wood and Jose Peraza (plus others) to LA for Hector Olivera, for that deal was operating more from a position of strength – “selling high” on all of the players involved.

Unfortunately, there’s another reason for the Braves’ motivation to move him:

"[The Cubs have] had conversations with the Atlanta Braves about 24-year-old former All-Star Julio Teheran – whose increasing friction with his pitching coach and decreased velocity this year have made him available."

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It appears there has been no shortage of angst exercised in the Braves clubhouse about how to “fix” Teheran’s issues this season.  The “problem” – whatever it may actually be – has taken a robust 2.89 ERA in 2014 and made it 4.71 this season.  Even more puzzling, Teheran has a stark “road split” with 7.24 away from Turner Field.

The Braves have evidently concluded that Teheran needs a different voice in his ear, as the above quote makes it clear that Roger McDowell has ceased making progress with him.

This note of “friction” could also harken back to the 2012 season, a lost year in which the Braves sought to change Teheran’s mechanics with the goal of reducing the chance for future injury.  This was a disaster, as Teheran went from a 2.55 ERA pitcher in AAA (2011) to 5.08 (2012).  Once reverted to his prior form, the effectiveness also returned (3.20 ERA in the majors for 2013).

Motivations

The Cubs are indeed looking for starting pitching help… for now and for the future.  Wittenmyer reports that they are talking with the San Diego Padres about “several potential pitching targets”, as the Padres have made most of their entire staff available.

Of the Padres’ offerings, Ian Kennedy is probably “most available”, though he sports a 4.58 ERA himself and would be a “rental” for the rest of the year.  Another possibly for the Cubs would be Andrew Cashner (4.13; 3rd arbitration year coming up).  Least available would be Tyson Ross (3.38).  San Diego would love to rid themselves of James Shields‘ new contract (4 years, $75 million, with $65m of that guaranteed through 2018), but that’s not terribly likely.

The Cubs have to decide if the change of scenery is sufficient to give them confidence of a turn-around for Teheran, for ultimately, it seems from Witternmyer’s words that they would be inclined to listen to Atlanta:

"The Braves are motivated to move [Teheran] and need hitting help across the board.  And he’s considered a strong makeup guy with a fierce competitive streak. The Cubs were weighing the potential causes for the velocity issues."

But why would they listen more intently to Atlanta?  Because of this:

"The Braves covet Cubs rookie Jorge Soler, said an industry source, and might be willing to offer more than Teheran to get him."

There’s also the enticement of a young, cost-controlled starting pitcher with obvious talent… with the Braves “selling low” on him.

Soler?

Once again, the Braves are seeking “hitters”, though the question Braves’ fans might have is this:  is Soler the right hitter to pursue?

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True, he’s still raw and the scouting numbers scream ‘potential’, but his stats thus far (majors and minors) don’t suggest that he’s going to blossom into that projected player any time soon.

This season, his first full major league campaign, Soler has traded batting average (.292 in 2014; .282 at AAA) for more strikeouts (31.8% – yikes!), fewer walks and a lower average (.257).  In the minors, he walked quite often (13-18%, typically), but in the majors, he has abandoned that patience (6.6%).  He also hit better in the minors.

Scouts have lauded Soler’s power potential as well (projected power grade 65 on the 80 scale), but he had yet to hit even 10 homers in any single season professionally (not at any single stop; though he’s been moved rapidly through their system), despite some impressive slugging percentages.

In short, it would seem that the Braves believe he could use a dose of Kevin Seitzer-style plate discipline, and they are willing to bet Julio Teheran… and more… to get him from Chicago.

Deadline: 4pm Eastern Today

Julio Teheran (49) looks on prior to the game against the Baltimore Orioles. Mandatory Credit: Evan Habeeb-USA TODAY Sports

Teheran’s contract pays him a quite reasonable $1 million this year, escalating to $3.3m, $6.3m, $8m, and $11m by 2019 with an option for 2020.  That will definitely be attractive.  Likewise Soler is cost-controlled:  $3.6 million through 2017, then $4.6 million through 2020.  The totals are virtually identical and both are also still just 23 years old.

Can this get done by this afternoon?  That will be interesting to find out.  And don’t expect that the Braves are throwing all of their efforts into the Cubs, either – I would have to believe that every team seeking pitching is now mulling whether they can “fix” Teheran as well.

The one that say “yes” first could have an excellent starter for several more years… or they might get a untanglable mess that McDowell may have created.

Next: It's Official: Wood and Peraza to LAD; Olivera is a Brave