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BaseballAmerica’s Take on the Atlanta Braves Farm System

By Alan Carpenter

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Mississippi Braves pitchers Lucas Sims and Greg Ross at Hank Aaron Stadium in Mobile, August 2015. Photo credit: Alan Carpenter, TomahawkTake.com

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Yesterday, J.J. Cooper of BaseballAmerica.com posted a video of his assessment of the Atlanta Braves farm system.

Now before I go into his evaluation – which you can see for yourself if you have facebook – I need to put this into a bit of context.

Back in early September, Cooper, who is the Managing Editor for BA.com, conducted a Q&A session in which he fielded the following question from Darren Thompson of @SportsNation365:  “Do you see the Braves system a Top 5 of 10 system?”

This question is important to Braves’ fans, given both the quality that was given up to bring in new talent and because of the promises made to rebuild from within to the greatest extent possible – and indeed, to establish a true pipeline of that talent for the foreseeable future.

So when the answer from Cooper to this question began with the words “Sorry, Braves fans”, I immediately wanted to see the detail about why he was apparently leaning towards a “no” response.

Here’s those details (paraphrased):

  • Atlanta has a potential Top 10 system
  • “No possible argument” for putting them in the Top 5 at this time
  • “Unfinished quality” to the system, though it should be much better in another year.  That thanks to the #3 draft pick in 2016 and…
  • Braves are “expected to spend massively internationally” next July

Regarding specific prospects:

* – I would argue that Peraza’s stock was falling significantly due to defense and OBP issues.

Cooper went on to suggest that there are others who could pan out into Top 100 players:  Kolby Allard is probably already there; Touki Toussaint, Max Fried, and Austin Riley were cited as well.

By means of comparison, he noted that the Dodgers have two of their prospects in the overall Top 10 list.  He also warns that Atlanta may have to trade some of these prospects to fill holes on the major league roster – if they think 2017 will be their first year of ‘contending’ once again.  I don’t know that this will necessarily be the case.  Part of that depends on the NL East and it’s transformations; part also depends on how the Braves wish to spend cash over the next 2 off-seasons.

But Back to That Video

With that as a backdrop, Cooper’s video is done some 7 weeks later, and is in conjunction with the roll-out of Top 10 prospects for each team.  He begins by offering that the Braves have perhaps the “most fascinating farm system in baseball” – not the best – but that they could be the best in another year.

Curiously enough, he bases that comment on the players currently in the system – not those who might be drafted/signed within the next year.  He cites several “interesting, high-ceiling, high-risk/high-reward” guys that are already on board.

With that, he then discusses the same players mentioned in the Q&A above.  Seems that Cooper might have seen a bit more about Austin Riley in the past 2 months, for he seems impressed at the reports from him this Summer.

With Toussaint, the question is entirely about command.  If he can harness that, then his upside becomes tremendous, given – as Cooper put it – that “there are few guys in the minor who have better stuff” than he.  Grades of 70 have been attached to two of his pitch offerings.  But the control issues are “very disconcerting” and must be addressed (walk rate was approaching his strikeout rate in 49 innings this season for the Braves).

The BA.com Top 10 for Atlanta

You’re going to look at this list and think “Hey wait a sec – he said Ozzy was the only overall-Top-50 prospect… and he’s third on this list???“.   Well, different people evaluate things in different ways, and it looks like Cooper was overruled in some of this.

For context, here’s what their list looked like just one year ago:

Based on the newest list, it appears that Atlanta probably does have 3 players in the their Top 50 overall.  Olivera would almost have to be in their Top 10-15, and I would guess that Allard and Albies are in the 20-30 range.  This certainly places Atlanta among the Top 5 farm systems, albeit with an asterisk:  the presence of Olivera is essentially a fluke, as he’s a non-traditional ‘prospect’ (though a 2016 Rookie of the Year candidate).

All that said, it’s also important to note that Cooper’s video comments are spot on:  while there is a lot of “upside” to a bunch of players there, the evaluations will mean nothing unless the results are obtained on the field.  That means Toussaint will have to throw strikes, Riley will have to play passable defense, Allard has to get through a season without back trouble, and… you get the point.  There is a lot of talent assembled here:  now let’s see if some of it can blossom.

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