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Why Would the Atlanta Braves Trade Andrelton Simmons?

By Alan Carpenter

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Sep 15, 2015; Atlanta, GA, USA; Atlanta Braves shortstop Andrelton Simmons (19) reacts on a game winning single against the Toronto Blue Jays in the ninth inning at Turner Field. The Braves defeated the Blue Jays 3-2. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports

Let’s go over this carefully.

  • Andrelton Simmons is the acknowledged best fielder at any position in baseball… well, acknowledged by everyone except Rawlings and the coaches that vote for the Gold Glove awards.
  • He is under a quite reasonable contract through 2020.  In 2016, his salary will be $6 million.  That increments up to $8m, $11m, $13m, and finally $15m.
  • Those numbers reflect his glove, not his bat, but there’s still bat-improvement potential out there.  Kevin Seitzer has been bonding well with his young Jedi Glove Master, and he at least showed better control at the plate in 2015.
  • What Simmons doesn’t do at the plate is easily made up in the field.  His Defensive Runs Saved numbers for the past four seasons are 19, 41, 28, and 25.  Think of these are RBIs that he earned without a bat in his hands.  “Anti-runs”, if you will.
  • However… Buster Olney has a theory that Simmons might have peaked defensively, and thus this might be the ultimate “Sell-High” sweet spot time (though frankly, I saw what he did at the start of 2015 and that ceased to be a concern later on for the 26-year-old… but the Braves might agree).

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So why on earth would the Braves entertain any designs on trading him away??

Many are asking that question – including Ken Rosenthal this morning, who is openly questioning the idea.

Personally, I’m on a wait-and-see thing here.  As this has become public knowledge that Atlanta is entertaining offers, it will be tough to put this Djinni back into his bottle:  in other words, I think we fans should start getting used to the thought that he’ll be traded.

That leads to many questions… so lie down on the couch – your therapy session begins now.

The Answers

THE WHY

  • Atlanta still has needs, and Simmons is the best trade chip available outside of things they covet even more – pitching, prospects, and Freddie Freeman.  As a premium chip, he stands to be the best shot at helping fill those needs… albeit leaving a huge gap in the infield.
  • That contract is not horrible at all, and still has five years to run.  Maybe that’s part of the calculus – trade him while it’s still affordable and while the receiving club can get a good run with him.
  • As Joel Sherman points out, the shortstop market is soft right now… and there are multiple needy teams.  However, my suspicion is that this isn’t a “test the waters” situation – it’s probably more a matter of time unless the Braves just flat don’t get what they want.

WHAT IS HE WORTH?

So the answer to this question:  probably quite a bit – something around the center-mass of the three scenarios above.  No matter the answer, this would constitute a ‘blockbuster’ deal.

WHAT IS ATLANTA LOOKING FOR?

One of three things:

  • Moving the excess baggage contracts of (pick any 2) Michael Bourn, Nick Swisher, or Cameron Maybin.  However, I don’t believe that Simmons is the bus that such a ploy could ride upon… not unless the Braves would intend to use that cash to go out and buy a big-time free agent.  And that’s just not their current style.
  • A premium pitcher or multiple premium pitching prospects
  • Top, near-major-league-ready prospects for third base or catcher… possibly a corner outfielder.  Here’s some of those names:

Curiously enough, among the top dozen prospects are 5 shortstops – and that doesn’t count our own Ozhaino Albies (yet) or Barreto at #18.

Notably, the catching prospects are limited:  the best are still not quite ready (excepting Jorge Alfaro of the Phillies – #59 overall – or Max Pentecost of the Blue Jays).  Gary Sanchez of the Yankees is ranked 8th, by the way.

It is also possible that the Braves might have something else in mind – getting a pile of prospects, then flipping them (or others) for a secondary deal.  So here’s advance warning:  even if something is pulled off that looks… odd… don’t just think that it’s the end of the wheeling and dealing.

WHO PLAYS SHORTSTOP IF SIMMONS GOES AWAY?

The short answer is Daniel Castro, but there’s a chance that the trade return could answer this question:

  • Angels:  Erick Aybar has 1 year remaining in his deal, which explains that team’s interest.  He would logically be a return piece, though I don’t really see a matchup here.
  • Yankees:  Not sure why they would engage, having Didi Gregorius, but I could hypothetically see a deal in which they get Simmons, Bethancourt, and a pitcher while Atlanta receives Didi, Gary Sanchez, and Aaron Judge all in one shot.
  • Dodgers:  Logically, the Braves would ask for Corey Seager.  I could see something involving those two, an outfielder of theirs, and we send a pitcher in their direction.  Yes, we could hope for Yasmani Grandal, but forget it.

While the Padres do seem interested – for obvious reasons – I just don’t see a match-up there.  In short, they blew all their best chips last year and didn’t get enough back in return.

HOW CLOSE IS OZZY ALBIES?

Low A Rome in 2015… but I would not be surprised at all if he isn’t pushed up to AA Mississippi this season.  The Braves are really high on him, and if Simmons is indeed dealt, then he could find himself in the majors by the time SunTrust Park opens.  So add that to the “why trade him?” list above.

Next: The Morning Chop Just Hit 100

That’s enough for now… I’m pretty sure this can of worms will continue to be a hot topic for … a while yet.  So as always, please return to your seats and fasten your seat belts.  The captain has advised that we’re going to be experiencing an extended period of turbulence, so please secure your belongings.

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