How the Atlanta Braves Messed Up the Off-Season for Everybody

Jul 19, 2015; Atlanta, GA, USA; Atlanta Braves starting pitcher Shelby Miller (17) delivers a pitch to a Chicago Cubs batter as fans watch in the shade during the third inning of their game at Turner Field. Mandatory Credit: Jason Getz-USA TODAY Sports

Acting Quickly Helped Out Atlanta… But Changed the Business of Baseball

Three deals were done by the first week of December… three deals that have steeled the resolve of free agents, emboldened the “sellers”, and have left many potential buyers merely gazing at storefront windows… unable to bring themselves to walk in and make a purchase.

• NOV 12.  SS Andrelton Simmons traded with C Jose Briceno to LA Angels for SS Erick Aybar, LHP Sean Newcomb, RHP Christopher Ellis, and cash.
• NOV. 20.  CF Cameron Maybin traded to Detroit for LHP Ian Krol and LHP Gabe Speier
• DEC. 9.  RHP Shelby Miller traded to Arizona for LHP Gabe Speier, CF/RF Ender Inciarte, RHP Aaron Blair, and some SS named Dansby Swanson

You could also add in the following deal:

• NOV. 13.  San Diego Padres traded RP Craig Kimbrel to Boston for 3B Carlos Asuaje, SS Javier Guerra, LHP Logan Allen, and CF Manuel Margot.

All of these deals were important for different reasons, and you could argue that even without them, the market could have shaken out in the same manner that has unfolded this month.  Nonetheless, they secured the notion that while the free agent market is strong in terms of talent, it is expensive, and while that remains the case, traders are going to treat their best talent as if being asked to sell off bars of pure gold.

Cameron Maybin?  Really?

Yeah, that deal, too.  The Tigers jumped at the opportunity.  They really didn’t need much given their offense, but Maybin is now their starting CF.  The Braves only had to sweeten the deal for $2.5 million and they actually sent back two pitchers in the process.  Now they have him for 1 year – 2 if they really wish – at a decidedly affordable price.  They don’t have to commit to a lot of years for any of the free agent options, and at that time, teams, didn’t even know Ender Inciarte was actually available (truth is:  he really wasn’t at some point).

No, we didn’t like the deal where Simba was dealt to the Angels, but at least the braves did get a good haul in return.  I could probably argue that if I had to quibble with this trade on its merit alone, then it would be in two respects:

• Coppy’s statements that he thought he might lose this haul if he’d waited still don’t quite ring true to me:  now I don’t know everything he knew at the time (clearly), but what other SS would the Angels have gone after with Newcomb as bait?  A pitcher, perhaps?  That wouldn’t have made a lot of sense.
• Had this trade been attempted after the Miller trade, I’d have to wonder if the Braves might have received even more in return… not that the Angels had a lot to give, but perhaps another club might have gotten involved.

Irrespective of that, it was significant “get” for Atlanta, and set up a yardstick to start measuring other deals with.

The ‘Oh My…’ Deals

The trades that definitely made everyone go “whoa…” were the deals for Kimbrel and Miller – and especially Miller.

Ignoring the bizarre/head-scratcher 3-way deal in which Cincinnati got Jose Peraza for Todd Frazier (+/-), virtually any/all significant trade activity has stopped in the weeks since.

The exception?  On Dec. 12, Ken Giles was obtained by the Astros (with IF Jonathan Arauz) for a big return to the Phillies.  Five pitchers: Vincent Velasquez, Mark Appel, Brett Oberholtzer, Thomas Eshelman, Harold Arauz.  Almost sounds like Venkman, Spengler, and Stantz (the Ghostbusters).  You’d have to think that the Phillies might have upped their price once Miller was dealt, and the Astros decided to go ahead and take the deal rather than seeing it go any higher.

• The Indians?  Still have their pitchers.
• The Marlins?  Still have Jose Fernandez.
• The Dodgers?  Mostly left out in the cold.
• The Nationals?  Had a deal for Brandon Phillips, but he’s refused to go.  These managed to off-load Yunel Escobar (making an interesting infield for the Angels), but that’s really about it.

Then there’s the Mets.  They didn’t go after Heyward.  Nor Yoenis Cespedes.  Not Justin Upton or Alex Gordon either.  They have instead signed Alejandro De Aza.  Yep.  That’s what happened – even after the retirement of Michael Cuddyer and his contract.  So do we have a reaction to that news?

Curiously, the Mets have suggested that De Aza adds ‘depth’ to their outfield (Granderson, Conforto, and Lagares), but regardless, he’s certainly not the outfielder (especially at $5.75 million) their fans were looking for.

Certainly, this and some other interesting paydays highlight a changed market this Fall.  And as this is Christmas week, many teams will have to do some soul-searching to figure out exactly how far they are willing to go to finish filling out their rosters for 2016.  Normally, most free agents are signed by now (and that’s generally true if you’re a big-name pitcher).  Normally, most trades are all done by now.  But a whole pile of position players are still available… for a price.

Next: Atlanta's Latest Pitching Reclamation Effort

So do you pay with the wallet or pay in prospects?  The Braves have pretty well made sure that you’ll have to do the latter if you opt out of the former.

It will be an unusually busy January for baseball.