Why Atlanta Braves Interest in Cespedes Might Not Be a Passing Fancy

Here’s the Whole Thought Process

Q:  How can they possibly afford him?  And why spend that money?

• It is senseless to spend big money on a free agent for only 1-2 years given the Braves’ current situation.
• Make it 3-4 years, though, and now you’re in a position where the Braves hope to be contending… and with a bat and defense like Cespedes, it’s kinda like having Jason Heyward back.
• The Braves don’t really have a lot of money laying around right now to spend on a big-name free agent… but there are ways to make that work.
  • Atlanta has maybe $13-$15 million to spend this year.  Next year, they might have at least $50 million available.
  • As a result, offer YC a lower 1st year price, then backload the contract for the remaining years.  $14m in 2016, $20m in 2017, $21m in 2018, $22m in 2019… something like that.  $77 million for 4 years.
  • Don’t offer an opt-out after the first or second year.  If he wants to go that route, then sure… he can have one after year #4… the year after everybody and his brother are free agents.  Then make it a mutual option for a 5th year at $23 million.  Max’s the deal at 5 years/$100 million.
• That $50 million (+/-) that Atlanta may have to spend for 2017?  There’s not a lot to spend it on.  It’s a poor free agent market.  Thus it actually does make sense to try and find a use for that money… starting right now.
• With Cespedes in the house, then the Braves might actually be competitive a lot sooner than later… 2017, perhaps, which was the original goal.
• But again, there’s still that glut of outfielders.  So has Coppy already got a possible deal for one of them in hand?  Wouldn’t it make sense to have done so before starting down this path?  Sure – if you know you’ll have XX dollars available to offer the free agent, then you can actually make the inquiry.
• Some speculation (Rosenthal) involves Atlanta trading Inciarte if they went for Cespedes.  I disagree.  If you are going ‘big’, then keeping Inciarte makes more sense when comparing skills, positions, and Cespedes’ age.  You wouldn’t flip Inciarte for prospects.  That would be counterproductive.
• I think the odd man out would be Nick Markakis.  He would be tradable… without having to eat much of his contract.  Such a trade would also clear more payroll space, allowing them to raise the 1st year contract offer another $5-6 million (I’m still thinking $100 million overall).
• Do not undersell the fact that Fredi Gonzalez is Cuban and that two other Cuban players (Olivera/Garcia) are on the roster.  It’s a relatively minor factor, true, but this could be a ‘tie-breaker’.

Q: So why pursue Cespedes in the first place?  There are some good reasons:

• 20+ homers every year he’s played.  14th in the majors over that period.   (Chris Davis is #1, Justin Upton ranks 22nd).
• Slugging rate in the .450-.500 range
• 2.4 fWAR or better every year he’s played (career high 6.7 in 2015… probably his peak)
• 21% strikeout rate, a far cry less than Davis (31%) or Upton (24%).
• RBI’s have been 100+ in 2014-15.  He scored 101 times in 2015 as well.
• Of those top HR hitters, is also the 3rd best defender (not great, but good)
• Of other sluggers in the HR-Top-25 since 2012, Pedro Alvarez, Jay Bruce and Carlos Gonzalez seem to be ‘available’… maybe Mark Trumbo.  But Cespedes would seem to be a better option than all of these for various reasons (hitting, defense, K-rate, contract status).
• It also doesn’t hurt to keep him out of New York.  We saw that last Summer.
• Oh – and you don’t lose a draft pick this June!

Q: Why was Shelby Miller dumped if they were going to go down this path?

• There was no way to know that Cespedes would still be on the market here in January.
• Trading Miller saved $5 million… and frankly, who wouldn’t have traded him for that kind of haul in return?
• Non-tendering Mike Minor saved at least another $5 million.
• Trading Cameron Maybin saved $5.5 million.
• Cutting Pedro Ciriaco saved about $1 million.
• When we speak of ‘financial flexibility’, all of these savings ($16.5 million) put the club into the position where they can act if opportunities present themselves.  If Miller was still a Brave, then they likely can’t even pick up the phone to speak with Cespedes’ agent.  Now maybe they can.

Yes – it IS still a longshot.  But that said, I also would not dismiss the possibility out of hand.  I don’t think the Braves will go for a straight up 6-7 year deal.  4 or 5 year?  Maybe.  So then it’s a matter of whether he would be willing to accept the kind of contract structure that the Braves would have to offer.

Next: The Braves Off-Season Review (Subject to Change!)

Somebody is going to get these players (Cespedes, Upton, and Davis) signed.  The question really comes down to who decides to ‘blink’ first in this staredown:  the player or the team.  I do think that there is a price point at which the Atlanta Braves will become a serious player, and that could change a lot of things.  So let’s not just assume that this is a “due diligence” level of interest.  I’ve already seen enough out of Coppolella to recognize that he thinks out of the box… a lot.