Don’t be so Optimistic about Atlanta Braves 2B Jace Peterson
Do Recent Reports about Jace Peterson‘s Injury Bode Well for the Atlanta Braves 2B Situation? Meh.
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Jace Peterson played much of last year with a thumb injury (not a wrist injury, as Freddie Freeman had us believe). We know this from recent headlines that felt like they were laced with optimism. Jace Peterson did become a worse player near the time that this injury happened in late May. So this news may for some scratch the itching curiosity as to why Peterson went from being a valuable asset at second base to, well, a bad major leaguer. It’s simple: Jace was quietly playing through pain. End of story, optimism restored!
…he had his BEST month of the year while nursing the same injury…
This narrative fits together nicely, and we all likely experienced these reports of Jace’s injury as a bit of an “aha” moment… at least
for a moment.
All that said, let’s backtrack a few steps to that Jace having been a “valuable asset at second base” during the first half. Before we start adjusting our win total projections, and thinking about who could be a valuable trade chip at the deadline, we better analyze what returning to first half Jace Peterson form really means. Here’s take a look at that Jekyll and Hyde 2015 season. Data courtesy of Fangraphs, graphic from me. (links to explanations of each of these statistics: BB% & K%, OPS, wRC+)
The second half drop in offensive performance that is so often referenced is clear. However, it’s not quite as simple as that. Jace played to an awful result during the first 20 games. He then graduated to a slightly better than average hitter May, and then had a heck of a month in June. Jace was then quite bad from July through the end of the season. Look at those July numbers. Ouch.
But why rehash this? The injury can explain the second half, right? Well, oddly enough Peterson injured his thumb in late May. Yet, he had his best offensive month in June. By a long shot.
Jace’s slash lines from 1st half to 2nd half: .265/.340/.318 & .230/.305/.341. Regress his June to a more reasonable expectation, and they look about even.
That is a bit of a head scratcher. Perhaps the thumb injury was a mild problem that got worse with wear and tear. And of course mechanics can break down over time when playing through an injury, as the body tries to compensate for the accompanying pain and weakness. I can lend to that line of thinking by pointing out that Jace’s Slugging % and
dropped dramatically from June to July: .424 to .217 and a healthy .162 to .043, respectively. Completely falling off of the map in terms of driving the ball does seem to jive with a progressive injury problem. Still, he had his
BEST
month of the year while nursing the same injury, with no significant time off after the onset of the injury.
Let me pepper in some defensive value context here, remembering to maintain some healthy skepticism towards modern defensive metrics for now. According to overall Defensive Runs Saved, Jace was league average last year. He graded out at a little above average in terms of range, according to Ultimate Zone Rating.
So, what we have here is basically an average defensive second baseman, who had 2 decent months offensively. Maybe he would have had better offensive luck without the thumb injury. Probably, even. But it’s also probable that some of the second half woes were a product of growing pains; the league takes some time to figure a new guy out, then it adjusts and exploits weaknesses. Which one of those months up there is the real Jace Peterson? I say May 2015 is his ceiling in a season-long sample size. No pop, average speed, below average hit and on-base skills. I see no reason to expect anything but occasionally average offensive production from Mr. Peterson.
I like Jace, but a return to his first half form is likely nothing more than a return to the Braves having a hole to fill at second base.
Next: Why Are We so Optimistic about Jace?
Follow the link here for my take on why Jace seems like a better option at second than he really is. Spoiler Alert: Andrelton Simmons has a hand in it.