The Atlanta Braves and the Arms Race

John Coppolella’s theory (young arms) places him squarely on the opposite side of Theo Epstein (young bats).

That doesn’t exactly break new ground, as you’ve probably noticed Coppy’s penchant for figuring out how to acquire every young power arm that’s appeared on any top-100 prospect list in the last three seasons (bonus points if they’ve had Tommy John surgery), and you may remember the 2015 Cubs: they were that happy team that mashed the ball all over the yard and shored up their one weakness (j/k you guys, that team is full of monsters) by signing Jason Heyward in the offseason. You probably remember him—tall, fluid, best defensive outfielder in baseball. Used to be a Brave.

(I’m trying not to be bitter about it, okay?)

Here’s Epstein in this year’s Baseball Prospectus (***NERD ALERT***) about how they Cubs are building:

"“The reason we focus on position players in the draft and in the bigger trades we made, it’s not just because we anticipated the decline in offense, it’s also because position players are more predictable.”"

Here’s Coppy with Mark Bowman on MLB.com after the deal that landed Chris Ellis and Sean Newcomb:

"“The focus for me is to get really good talent. I’d be happy if we got arms in every deal. We’re built around pitching and defense. The more arms we can get, the better off we’re going to be.”"

So… two guys not exactly seeing the same things when it comes to the future.

For a baseball fan, this could make for a fascinating next half-decade or more in the National League. In one corner, you have an offense that has pundits opinions ranging from ‘they’re already approaching the ceiling‘ to mid-1990s Cleveland Indians (a highly likely comparison, according to Baseball Prospectus and incidentally, a team built by John Hart).

In another, you have literally dozens of arms somewhere between the good-to-very good standard, but only three (Aaron Blair, Sean Newcomb and Kolby Allard) are consensus top-100 prospects and only Blair is considered truly ready for primetime.

The New Cubs opening postseason (against a Mets pitching staff that may be more electric, if less insanely deep, than the Braves are projected to have in the future) in 2015 didn’t do much to inspire, as the group hit .169 against New York and .204 if you include the one-gamer against Pittsburgh and NLDS against St. Louis. Fangraphs STEAMER projections pit the Cubs to have five players (Kris Bryant, Kyle Schwarber, Addison Russell, Jorge Soler and Dexter Fowler) among the NL’s top-30 in strikeouts in 2016—these guys are big fans of the big whiff.

Of course, struggling a year ago meant that Bryant (24 years old), Schwarber (23), Anthony Rizzo (26), Russell (22) and Soler (24) got meaningful October at-bats while the Braves young pitching was lighting it up in places like Reno, Rome and Burlington.

The Cubs have at least some cushion—Jon Lester and Jake Arrieta will be a solid one-two for at least a couple more years and, while teams are making sure to lock up young arms earlier and earlier, Chicago can always go out and purchase Top-Tier Free Agent Starter X in any given year. Which is probably nice.

The Braves can’t buy offense with money. What they’ll eventually have to do is buy it with pitching—ala Shelby Miller for Ender, Dansby and Blair.

But… what if?

What if Newcomb, Allard and Blair become Big Three Lite and the remainder range from ‘decent impression of Aaron Harang’ to ‘I mean, somebody needs to pitch during this 11-3 blowout’… who is good enough to deal that you don’t need, and what can you get in return?

Until the mammoth 2018 free-agent class, positional talent on the open market will be scarce; Carlos Gomez, Jonathan Lucroy and J.D. Martinez are probably the most interesting potential names out there, and they’ll all be on the wrong side of 30 by the time they’re eligible for free agency. ‘Don’t pay for past performance’ may not be the cardinal rule for free-agency, but it’s definitely one of its commandments.

And that may not matter anyway. Between Liberty Media not wanting to spend money, the sweetheart TV deal for FoxSports and what I’ll call ‘an expected lack of gate revenue’ forthcoming for this season (and potentially next), the purse strings are going to be tight. Shrewd, aggressive trade moves (the kind Coppy is known for, incidentally) may not be part of the plan; it could be the whole plan.

(Or they could always attempt to bring back a player that didn’t really fit the first time, for a lot more money. I think you should get a lot more than 1-for-4 with a strikeout and an interesting defensive choice each game for the amount of money people seem bent on giving Justin Upton, but that’s just me; I don’t dictate the market.)

Next: Atlanta Braves Actually Made a Re-Run at Justin Upton?

I leave you with this:  If you had to bet your life on it, would you bet that Atlanta will develop enough good arms to deal for top-level bats?  Coppy seems to have bet his career on it.