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Atlanta Braves Replacing Gonzalez Not about 2016

By Fred Owens

Apr 9, 2016; Atlanta, GA, USA; Atlanta Braves manager Fredi Gonzalez (33) seen here at a game against the St. Louis Cardinals earlier this year could be on his way out; most fans think it's been too long coming. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports
Apr 9, 2016; Atlanta, GA, USA; Atlanta Braves manager Fredi Gonzalez (33) seen here at a game against the St. Louis Cardinals earlier this year could be on his way out; most fans think it's been too long coming. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports /
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Apr 9, 2016; Atlanta, GA, USA; Atlanta Braves manager Fredi Gonzalez (33) seen here at a game against the St. Louis Cardinals earlier this year could be on his way out; most fans think it’s been too long coming. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports
Apr 9, 2016; Atlanta, GA, USA; Atlanta Braves manager Fredi Gonzalez (33) seen here at a game against the St. Louis Cardinals earlier this year could be on his way out; most fans think it’s been too long coming. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports /

Atlanta Braves Replacing Gonzalez – it’s not just about 2016

The Atlanta Braves are heavily rumored to be replacing Fredi Gonzalez. While the easy answer is the horrible 2015 and the disaster so far this year, the reasons go deeper than that. Gonzalez’ decision-making was shaky from the start and some have forgotten there was more than one collapse and that the winning season of 2013 was a direct result of playing in a division of bad teams.

A quick reprise of records

I’m written here several times that there were reasons to apportion blame at higher levels under all GMs since 2010, given some of the rosters he was handed – and a case for those before that as well. Having said that, managers are judged on results and the decision-making processes that lead to those results over time.  A short review of seasons seems a good place to start.

2011

In 2011, Fredi Gonzalez took over essentially the same team  Bobby Cox took to the playoffs in 2010 and cruised to the playoffs. In the first half the team was 54-38, but in the second half they played .500 baseball (35-35).  On August 1st they were in second place behind the Phillies (seven games back; eight games in the lost column).

Tm W L W-L% GB RS RA pyth W-L%
PHI 69 39 .639 — 471 360 .621
ATL 63 47 .573 7.0 442 391 .556
NYM 55 54 .505 14.5 489 478 .510
FLA 54 55 .495 15.5 442 472 .470
WSN 52 56 .481 17.0 418 436 .481

Statistics from Baseball-Reference.com’s play index tool

The Phillies and the Braves were both hot in August:  the Phils were 18-7; the Braves 17-9.  As a result when September first came around they were still in second but 7.5 games back; 9 in the lost column.

In September, the Phillies were just a touch above .500 at 16-14 and finished 102-60.  The Braves went 9-18 and finished 89-73:  thirteen games behind the Phillies having lost 9 of their last 12 games including the last 5 in a row and missing the playoffs.  That’s called a collapse.

2012

In 2012 the Braves and Nationals were the only teams in the division who could tie their shoes without breaking a finger – at least for the first half of the season.

Tm W L W-L% GB RS RA pyth W-L%
WSN 49 34 .590 — 348 290 .583
ATL 46 39 .541 4.0 391 357 .542
NYM 46 40 .535 4.5 394 374 .524
MIA 41 44 .482 9.0 334 390 .430
PHI 37 50 .425 14.0 368 396 .467

Statistics from Baseball-Reference.com’s play index tool

After the All-Star Break, the Mets sank like a rock at 28-48, the Marlins were just as bad at 28-49, and the Nats repeated the first half at 49-30.  The Braves had the reversed the Marlins/Mets records at 49-29 mostly due to a scorching September that followed a .500 August.  They coasted into the first Bud Selig death match game and we all know about the infield fly ball to medium left field and the Braves losing their composure. So a good year for Gonzalez and crew.

Next: The Saga Continued

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