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How Draft Day Could Turn to Disaster for the Atlanta Braves

By Alan Carpenter

Jun 15, 2015; Omaha, NE, USA; Florida Gators pitcher A.J. Puk (10) throws against the Virginia Cavaliers during the first inning at TD Ameritrade Park. Mandatory Credit: Bruce Thorson-USA TODAY Sports
Jun 15, 2015; Omaha, NE, USA; Florida Gators pitcher A.J. Puk (10) throws against the Virginia Cavaliers during the first inning at TD Ameritrade Park. Mandatory Credit: Bruce Thorson-USA TODAY Sports /
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Jun 15, 2015; Omaha, NE, USA; Florida Gators pitcher A.J. Puk (10) throws against the Virginia Cavaliers during the first inning at TD Ameritrade Park. Mandatory Credit: Bruce Thorson-USA TODAY Sports
Jun 15, 2015; Omaha, NE, USA; Florida Gators pitcher A.J. Puk (10) throws against the Virginia Cavaliers during the first inning at TD Ameritrade Park. Mandatory Credit: Bruce Thorson-USA TODAY Sports /

There are scenarios in these mock drafts that give me fear that the Braves will have to do something that ultimately backfires

I need somebody to talk me off the ledge.

The third MLB Draft pick represents a very strange position.  On paper it looks like you can’t miss as one of the elite talents available will certainly be there, and you really don’t care which one.

However, as we inch closer to June 9th, my fear is rising that things could blow up in the Braves’ face… and unfortunately we won’t really even know that for another 3 years or more.

Concerns

I’m frankly paranoid about everything right now.  I’ll tell you why:

  • Highly-regarded high school pitchers.  In a Q&A this week, J.J. Cooper of BaseballAmerica took a question about the risk level of high school pitchers in the draft.  It was a scary picture.  But beyond that, they usually aren’t drafted in the top 20 picks of the draft.
    • For every Clayton Kershaw on his list, there’s a Kasey Kiker.
    • There’s literally about a 50% failure rate.
    • The Braves currently have 4 such pitchers in their system:  Allard, Toussaint, Fried, and Foltynewicz.
    • Heck, just look at them:  6’4″ stick figures throwing 95 mph.  Of course they’re gonna break down at some point!
  • Highly-regarded high school bats.  I’m not comfortable with these either… most of them fail, too:
    • Braxton Davidson, in an effort to get his body ready for 2016, may have messed himself up more.
    • Austin Riley, designated as the Next Big Thing last season, is kind of stumbling early  at Rome so far… which baseballamerica points out in another recent article.
    • Dustin Peterson?  Now at AA, but I’m not sold yet.
    • In the 2010 Draft, Christian Yelich is the only Round 1 HS Outfielder to have made the majors.  2011:  Nobody.  2012:  Byron Buxton, but he’s clearly the exception.
    • At least the 2009 draft fared better:  Some guy named Trout, plus Randal Grichuk.
  • Ceiling level of College outfielders.  Okay, well, there’s the “safe” pick:  Corey Ray.  But he’s been falling on draft boards, and it could simply be that what you see from him now might be as good as it ever gets.
  • Over-drafting for need.  The best catcher in the draft is Zack Collins, and though he wants to stay as a catcher, some teams wonder if he can.  But if you like him and don’t take him at #3, then you get him.

So who do I want to see the Braves get in June with that first pick?  Mercer University OF Kyle Lewis.  His team put a scare into both Auburn and FSU at the NCAA Regionals last year and Lewis has developed into a beast – posting stats like these:

  • 2014:  .281/.340/.382/0.722 with   3 2B,   2 HR,  17 RBI in    89 AB (17K/9BB)
  • 2015:  .367/.423/.677/1.100 with 19 2B, 17 HR, 56 RBI in 226 AB (41K/19BB)
  • 2016:  .419/.547/.753/1.300 with 11 2B, 17 HR, 64 RBI in 198 AB (42K/56BB)

I don’t care if you’re in a beer league or a video game – those are good numbers!

Next: Doesn't matter what I want

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