The Atlanta Braves Morning Chop: Draft Bonus Numbers are Off

Signings continue, though the Braves are now in a range where the pencils will have to stay sharp, as their bonus pool is rapidly dwindling.

MLB Trade Rumors has learned that Atlanta Braves’ 4th pick in the draft (2nd round, #76 overall) , catcher Brett Cumberland, will receive a $1.5 million bonus for signing.  This is the pick obtained from Baltimore in May for taking Brian Matusz’s contract while giving them Brandon Barker and Trevor Belicek.

It’s time to revisit the math now, for we are getting down to the end here, and there’s still some work left to be done:

Uh-oh – Bad numbers

We have a discrepancy in the numbers here between mine and those posted by MLB.

Before the Baltimore trade, the Braves’ pool amount stood at $12,385,200.  That number was inadvertently left in the third paragraph of the MLB post linked above.  Adding in the $838,900 for that 76th pick obtained from Baltimore, and this now sums to $13,224,100.

However, MLB is reporting – and the same MLB pool numbers page agrees – that Atlanta has a total bonus pool of $13,319,600, which is $95,500 higher than my sum.  I do not believe that this number is correct.

I frankly didn’t understand those figures initially, for when I add the bonuses for Rounds 1-10 (12 picks), I’m repeatedly getting $13,224,100.

There is, however, a bonus pool pick worth $934,400… the sum of $838,900 and $95,000.  It happens to be Baltimore’s 69th pick (their regular pick; nice).  I believe the MLB article erroneously added this value to Atlanta’s pool instead of the correct amount of $838,000.

This is critical, for the Braves might already be in the second-level penalty if they are using the incorrect numbers.

To The Calculators!

Our updated draft tracking table shows all of the numbers currently known or rumored.  Recall that bonuses for players picked in the first 10 rounds (12 players in this year’s case) count against the bonus pool.  So do any bonuses offered above $100,000 for rounds beyond the 10th.

Allowing for $10,000 bonuses for players chosen in Rounds 7-10, these numbers of bonuses paid (or soon to be paid based on rumored amount for Ian Anderson) sum to $13,865,000.

By my reckoning, the Braves have $13,224,100 + 5% to spend before the draft pick penalty kicks in.

That extra 5% only gets us to $13,885,305.

We’re now within $20,305 of the point of no return.

A Correction:

Jim Callis (MLB.com) has just updated his bonus report for Zach Becherer:

That’s $25,000 HIGHER than I had a few minutes ago.  So that prior figure rises to $13,890,000 and the limit is $13,885,305.

In other words, the Braves are now in danger of going over the 5% penalty threshold, which would force the loss of their first 2017 draft pick.

That puts us $4,695 over.

Now Ian Anderson could save the day if his bonus comes in a little lower… so all is not lost yet.  We’ll have to see how that pans out.

The numbers reported by MLB would allow the Braves to spend up to $13,985,580… another $100,275 of space.  But that’s not the case.

Note that it is not possible to help this number get better via those Round 7-10 guys.  In fact, they must sign, or else Atlanta loses their pool money all together, and then there’s a huge mess.

Hopefully the Braves already know this and haven’t been going by the published MLB figures.  If so, then they know what’s available.

If not… I don’t even wanna go there:  we can’t possibly want to lose a top two draft pick in 2017 due to a math error.

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Next: An Interview with one of our draftees

Hat tip to @BravesOptions guy on a correction for 15th round pick Zach Becherer… he could be the guy who ultimately saved the 2017 draft… and I’m starting to breathe again now!