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Atlanta Braves’ Julio Teheran… Sustainable Greatness?

By Alan Carpenter

Jan 12, 2015; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Toronto Raptors forward Patrick Patterson (54) looks at a computer during the warm-up before a game against the Detroit Pistons at Air Canada Centre. Mandatory Credit: Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports
Jan 12, 2015; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Toronto Raptors forward Patrick Patterson (54) looks at a computer during the warm-up before a game against the Detroit Pistons at Air Canada Centre. Mandatory Credit: Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports /
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Apr 17, 2016; Boston, MA, USA; General view of Fenway Park while the Toronto Blue Jays take batting practice before a game against the Boston Red Sox at Fenway Park. Mandatory Credit: Bob DeChiara-USA TODAY Sports
Apr 17, 2016; Boston, MA, USA; General view of Fenway Park while the Toronto Blue Jays take batting practice before a game against the Boston Red Sox at Fenway Park. Mandatory Credit: Bob DeChiara-USA TODAY Sports /

The Argument is getting louder by the day:  is Julio Teheran ‘worth’ a big trade return?  Is his FIP telling?  Is he going to regress?  Or is he who he’s really been?

It’s kind of funny, seeing Red Sox fans on twitter.  They are… pretty opinionated at times.  Of course, so are we.

Let’s play with some numbers…

FACTOR #1 – HOME RUNS AND BALLPARKS

Here are Julio Teheran‘s homer rate numbers (per 9 innings) for the past few seasons:

  • 2013:  1.07
  • 2014:  0.90
  • 2015:  1.21
  • 2016:  1.10

Fact is, when he’s giving up any runs, it’s usually via the homer this year.  29 earned runs total, 13 home runs allowed.  Given there have been a couple of non-solo homers (Joey Votto‘s 3-run jack, for instance), then yes:  when opponents score on Julio, it’s usually via the long ball.

But even with his stellar 2016 season, that 1.10 figure is right in line with the past 3 years… and that’s even close to last season’s less-than-ideal year.

Let’s look at the park effects (higher means more home runs):

NL EAST: 

  • Turner Field: 1.012
  • Citizens Bank Park:  1.053
  • Marlins Park: 0.970
  • Citi Field:  0.930
  • Nationals Park:  0.902

AL EAST:

  • Yankee Stadium:  1.633 (Most homer-prone in baseball)
  • Fenway Park:  0.835 (25th in baseball)
  • Rogers Centre:  0.958
  • Oriole Park:  0.978
  • Tropicana Field:  0.838

So when you weigh each list for 81 home games plus 9 away games for each opponent, here’s the result:

  • AL EAST:  107.298
  • NL EAST:  116.667

In other words – all other factors being equal – a Fenway Park home field would be roughly 8% less homer prone for a random pitcher against divisional opponents than Turner Field.

So the argument is actually bunk.

Next: More Pitching Math

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