Rationalizing the Jeff Francoeur Trade from Atlanta's point of view

This was not your typical August waiver-period trade deal… but John Coppolella is not your typical trade dealer. Let’s try to figure out why this happened.

Three-way trades are hard to pull off – especially when 2 of the principals are contending teams. That part was mollified partly because Texas and Miami are in opposing leagues and partly because the Rangers received nothing of immediate benefit at the major league level.

My take on this? I can definitely see how Texas and Miami are good here…. but I am trying to understand Atlanta’s angle. So let’s break it down.

The Trade Details

Jeff gave you the quick-and-dirty as the deal was made last evening. Here’s the final transaction:

MARLINS get Jeff Francoeur and cash from Atlanta ($104,959)
BRAVES get UTIL Dylan Moore from the Rangers
BRAVES get C Matt Foley from the Marlins
RANGERS get International bonus slots 37 and 97 from Miami
RANGERS get International bonus slot 93 from the Braves

Let me start with the easy parts:

Miami’s Benefit

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Giancarlo Stanton could be done for the year. Ichiro Suzki is being run out to right field a lot more often, but his performance has suffered… .224 in August (.238 in the 2nd half). He hits pitchers consistently well, but this every day play seems to be getting to the (nearly) 43 year old.

Jeff Francoeur hits lefty pitching well… maybe not as well as a rested Ichiro, but better than the tired version. Both provide very good defense, so no loss on that side of the ball.

The Marlins’ farm system is pretty terrible, so they had to be a bit creative to get this done, too… hence the International slots, plus a bit player.

Why did the Braves send cash? Jeff has an incentive clause for $200K extra at 300 plate appearances, and that repeats at 350, 400, 450, etc. His base contract is for $1 million, so he’s still due around 22% of that, or $220K.

How the teams struck a compromise of the reported $105K… I can’t say (it’s roughly half his remaining base salary plus-or-minus the plane ticket)… but the Marlins felt happier with it, I suppose. They like other peoples’ money.

Texas’ Benefit

This is straightforward: they have a couple of International kids in mind and they wanted to maximize their bonus pool to minimize penalties.

This deal gives the Rangers $860K in added bonus space, A previous deal gave them a $210K slot… thus gaining the maximum increase allowed (50% above their original pool allotment). This genuinely represents a bargain for the Rangers… probably at least 2 more young signees for a lesser prospect role player.

That Brings Us Back to Atlanta

There’s a not a lot of reasons I can think of for doing this deal, but there’s a couple:

A request from Jeff, since his playing time had shrunk once Matt Kemp came onto the scene.
The need to clear a roster spot so that a September call-up could be made (yes, I realize that Brandon Snyder will be added to the roster, but he is also a DFA candidate for 9/1 or sooner).

That 93rd International bonus slots can be traded despite already having been “used”. For the record, though, you can’t do this the other way ’round: if you go over your team’s pool, you can’t then – after the fact – add more pool space to make it all good.

This slot’s value is $238,800, and there is a consequence to trading it away: Atlanta will now have to mail another check to the commissioner’s office for $238,800. This represents 100% of the additional overage they have incurred by reducing their pool allocation.

On Dylan Moore

If there is a sleeper player involved here, it’s probably Moore, though I’m less enthusiastic about a 24 year old in High-A ball.

Ken Rosenthal pointed out this morning that the Rangers had to get involved because… well, Miami didn’t have anything to offer (and international bonus slots were useless to the Braves at this time, as noted above):

Telling part about trade last night is that #Braves, #Marlins could not agree on player in exchange for Francoeur. Had to involve #Rangers.
— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) August 25, 2016

That speaks volumes about the Miami side of things, but it may be that Atlanta saw something in Moore while also scouting Travis Demeritte. So they raided a pair of minor league teammates.

He has power (14 HR in 2016) and speed (40 stolen bases… 11 caught), but I’m in between which batting average number to believe more: .244 at low-A or the .351 for 17 games (74 AB) in High-A.

His K-rate, walks, OBP are good, but again: he should be beating up that competition at this age.

Full disclosure: he’s a UCF Golden Knight as I am, so I definitely have a soft spot for Moore and would like him to succeed. We will wait and see.

So the bottom line from Atlanta’s point of view is this:

Spent $343,761 to acquire a pair of non-prospects.
Added some roster flexibility
Gave Jeff a chance at a playoff run (currently 1.5 GB Cardinals for 2nd Wild Card slot)
Avoided spending $200K in incentive monies to Jeff after 24 more PAs.

That might be all there is to know about this deal… and if so, it’s a case of Coppy cutting the guy a favor – perhaps in the hope that he considers returning in some 2017 role yet-to-be-determined.

Certainly Jeff will now hit the first contract incentive, and perhaps another level with more playing time.

If you’re looking for that diamond-in-the-rough prospect with the tools that everybody else missed… that’s probably not going to happen. But organizational players are useful and catchers are even more so. We’ll see how that plays out.

Occam’s Razor has been watered down over the centuries is a scientific and philosophical saying that probably rings true here. Colloquially, it is this: “the simplest explanation is usually the correct one.”

Next: Minors Watch

Thus there probably isn’t a deep underlying Trade Wizard thing here that’s yet to be uncovered. The deal probably is what it is… a favor to Frenchy for a job well done this year.

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Breaking it Down: The Atlanta Braves Curious Francoeur Deal

By Alan Carpenter | Aug 25, 2016