Atlanta Braves: When to Pull the Trigger

Exactly what decisions are involved in determining whether a team is ready to compete for a title?  The Braves’ rebuild is ahead of schedule, but as they look to add pitching, how close are they?

I expect you will hear many rumors of the Atlanta Braves trying to do something “big” this off-season. However, it will be “big” as defined on their terms.

We have talked about this… the Atlanta Braves are looking to add 2 starting pitchers to their rotation (“2 to 3” was actually the statement) when SunTrust Park opens.  Word is that one could be a front line guy, plus one for the back end.

Word is also that John Coppolella does not wish to spend from his prospect surplus – at least not yet.  Witness this quote from him via Mark Bowman from 2 weeks ago:

"“If there’s a need, we’d probably rather fill it via free agency, rather than through trades,” Coppolella said. “We’ve worked so hard to add all of these young prospects and all of this young talent. The last thing we want to do is to trade away three or four of them that we like, so that we can get a quick fix. Everything we’ve done has been the hard way for the long haul. There haven’t been any quick fixes or anything done easy.”"

However, in his last #AskCoppy chat session, he also had this exchange with a fan:

Thus, the question:  when do you decide that the time is right to ‘strike’?  Where is that tipping point of ‘adding players to fill out a roster’ vs. ‘adding impact players to win a pennant’?

Let’s look at a few data points:

• Shelby Miller was traded under the notion that the Braves were not likely to be competitive in 2016 and probably not for the 3 years of team control that Miller still had remaining (through 2018).
• That notwithstanding, the Braves also chose to build around Julio Teheran and Freddie Freeman rather than trade either (though Freeman is under contract through 2021; Teheran through 2019 with a 2020 option).
• In the months since the Miller deal, we’ve been told that the rebuild is ‘ahead of schedule.’
• We’ve were told early on that the team wanted to be competitive going into SunTrust Park.  Depending on the definition, one could argue that this has been achieved.
• The idea of pursuing ‘2 or 3 starting pitchers‘ does not suggest that anyone has hit the pause button in this rebuild… particularly if at least one is a frontliner.
• It should be encouraging to both the Atlanta Braves as a franchise and to their fans that the offense was 4th-most productive in the NL over the second half of the season, hitting.277 (first in NL), scoring 342 runs (3rd by only 6 runs)  and registering 10.6 fWAR.

What would it take to push this team over the .500 mark?  How far should they be willing to go this season to try and achieve that?

If the team opts not to go there, then what changes would be envisioned to get there next season?