Report: Atlanta Braves Showing Strong Interest in Chris Sale

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Oct 1, 2016; Chicago, IL, USA; Chicago White Sox starting pitcher James Shields (25) pitches against the Minnesota Twins during the first at U.S. Cellular Field. Mandatory Credit: Patrick Gorski-USA TODAY Sports /

Three Scenarios

This is always a tricky thing: trying to place a proper value on somebody of the caliber of Chris Sale.

When we were considering Justin Verlander, one of the key considerations impacting the basic offer proposed was that he has a hefty contract. That’s not the case for Chris Sale.

The Condor’s deal finally starts paying him something close to his value this season… but it’s still “just” $12 million. Two team options for 2018-19 jump that slightly to $12.5m and $13.5m. There’s also a bonus for winning a Cy Young trophy.

Considering what he’s been doing (on the mound, not in the clubhouse), that’s dirt cheap… and he’s still not yet 28 years old.

Let’s also consider the needs of the White Sox, who would have the worst farm system in the majors except for the abysmal nature of the Angels and Marlins. As a direct result, they have in mind the possibility of tearing it all down and going the route of the rebuild… with Sale being the key to the vault.

As another consequence, that raises the possibility of making this into a much bigger deal.

So this is going to hurt… but could be interesting for Atlanta.

ONE: SALE ALONE

Braves obtain: Chris Sale
White Sox get: Matt Wisler, Sean Newcomb, Lucas Sims, Luke Dykstra, Ricardo Sanchez

Told you this would hurt. It might even be light…I was considering the addition of Mike Soroka.

So there’s a couple of 40-man players (or almost so, in the case of Sims). Wisler replaces Sale in their rotation while Newcomb and Sims are there since they will need major league rotation support sooner than later.

TWO: SALE PLUS SHIELDS

While the Sox want to get value for Chris Sale, they also do not want James Shields on their roster any longer. The Padres are paying them just over half his contract to pitch poorly in Chicago. Could this be an opportunity for Coppy to work his ‘buy-a-bad-contract-to-get what-he-wants’ magic?

Braves obtain: Chris Sale, James Shields
White Sox get: Matt Wisler, Lucas Sims, John Gant, Luke Dykstra, Ricardo Sanchez

Roughly the same package going back, except that Shields’ contract means Gant instead of Newcomb… which is a significant change, for certain. Again, another pitcher like a Mike Soroka might still be needed.

Meanwhile, Coppy then puts Shields back on the market for half of the $10 million the Braves would owe (2017 and 2018). Somebody will bite at Big Game James for a $5 million/yr flier in the hopes that he bounces back.

Of course, the Sox could reject such an overture: their needs aren’t cash driven – they are prospect driven. That said, a high payroll during a rebuild makes little sense, and that’s where they are headed.

THREE: SALE, SHIELDS, FRAZIER

Now this gets a little nutty, but the White Sox do wish to move the Todd-Father as well. If Kevin Seitzer thinks he can get a little more contact out of Frazier, then this could be a great move for the Braves. Even if not, he still slugged 40 homers in 2016.

The bad news? Unless you can extend him for 2-3 years beyond 2017 (bridging the gap for Austin Riley or Kevin Maitan), this is probably not worth the effort… and it would get quite a bit more expensive, too (MLBTR projects $13.5 million for him in 2017 via arbitration).

So the odds of this happening are close to zero… but for the sake of argument and discussion, we’ll include it anyway:

Braves obtain: Chris Sale, James Shields, Todd Frazier
White Sox obtain: Matt Wisler, Sean Newcomb, Lucas Sims, Mike Soroka, Ricardo Sanchez, Adonis Garcia, and Rio Ruiz.

The proposed package is closer to the original (Scenario One) offer, plus adding the top pair of third basemen in the organization.

As you see, this is getting into the realm of silliness… but it’s probably worth the discussion since third base is also an upgradable position for the Braves… and teams have won the World Series with a lot less than that.

PERMUTATIONS

Yes, it’s certainly possible that you might see other names bandied about, given the needs of the White Sox: Ozzie Albies, Mallex Smith – just to name two right away.

Positionally, the White Sox are okay at the major league level for the most part, but their purpose for selling off Sale and others would be for farm system assets, so figure that many names could be in play.

Next: Colon and Dickey? Bring it On

With all of this, we realize that 95-98% of all rumors result in … nothing. Just more smoke blowing around, clogging our lungs.

But do realize our premise here: if such a deal is to assist the Atlanta Braves in unclogging their 40-man roster, then it needs to be done by Friday of this week.

So whether we’re talking Sale, Archer, Gray, or any other hot young pitcher… Coppy has his work cut out for him.

We’ll know soon enough.

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