Another Possible Atlanta Braves International Target Emerges
Just when we thought that getting Kevin Maitan might have been the International signing coup of the decade, the Atlanta Braves might have a chance to raise that bar to an epic level.
Baseball America told us yesterday of surprising new wrinkle in the International baseball players market – one that I am sure the Atlanta Braves will be taking a long look at in the coming months.
Even in the wake of Fiedel Castro’s demise; even despite a recent “thawing” in US/Cuban relations; Cubans continue to do whatever they feel is necessary to escape the island. That has happened again in the person of a teen baseball player named Luis Robert.
In this case, Robert’s escape from Cuba is might have been related to financial expedience and perhaps a bit less about the usual restraint of freedoms (though I do not wish to dismiss this factor at all – it’s still very much in play).
But while most athletes leaving the island tend to be in their mid-20s or older, Robert is 19… and his departure plan may have been accelerated due to the new Collective Bargaining Agreement. Reports are that the new CBA happened after his exit, but it is certainly possible that he was tipped off that getting out quickly might be a good idea for his future bottom line.
The CBA Factor
The International market component of this new agreement eliminates the practices of teams making Yoan Moncada-esque deals. It eliminates the “all in” years such as the Atlanta Braves did this past summer.
Each team will have a pool of money to spend – a pool that can be augmented via trade – but one that can never exceed roughly $10 million during any signing period.
The Braves spent something closer to $14 million this season on International players… and close to another $10 million tacked on after the penalties are accounted for.
But teams need to fill multiple needs with their signings starting in July 2017. They need enough new players to fill out their Dominican Summer League teams… never mind also looking for actual talent to hopefully rise through the ranks. so those bonus pool dollars (averaging roughly $5 million per club) need to be spread around quite a bit.
Kevin Maitan likely would not get $4 million+ under the new system… it’s simply not practical. And Luis Robert won’t either.
Hence, his escape now will certainly have its advantages.
Toolsy Outfielder
Baseball America says that scouts know about Robert. They call him one of the five best in Cuba. Even now at 19, he was playing in the National circuit and was actually leading the league in OPS.
He’s still raw, but once he fills out, he could develop into a corner power threat. Comps are dangerous from afar, but Matt Kemp, perhaps?
Before you scoff at that, check these stats from the BA story:
"During the current 2016-17 season in Cuba’s top league, Serie Nacional, Robert batted .401/.526/.687 in 232 plate appearances with 12 home runs, 38 walks (10 intentional) and 30 strikeouts with 11 stolen bases in 17 attempts. Despite leaving in season, Robert tied for third in the league in home runs and ranked fifth in stolen bases. Had he accumulated enough plate appearances to qualify, he would have led the league in both OBP (by 49 points) and slugging (by 91 points)."
Huh. And lest you think he’s excelling in a “down” league, Robert also has international tournament experience… which he starred at as well.
Check Your Daytimers
Baseball America also points out the issue with the calendar. Robert’s future has a June 15th deadline of sorts. He has to establish residency in another country (this is likely in process now) and then petition the Commissioner’s office for free agency.
We’ve seen crazy swings in the timelines for how long this takes… anywhere from 2 months to about 8 months. He could also be impacted by the turnover in leadership coming to the US State Department.
But if cleared to sign before June 15th, he suddenly becomes available to several teams that are already penalty-laden for next year’s International market season – beginning on July 2nd.
Teams in the penalty box for 2016 can’t touch Robert (includes the Dodgers, Red Sox, some others) because they are limited to a $300K bonus.
Teams that were not in the penalty situation for 2016 will be reluctant to bid on Robert since that would immediately endanger their plans for this coming July… for they’d very likely put themselves into that penalty situation.
Limited, But Willing Field
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That gives us just a few clubs that could bid on Robert… but they’d be able to bid strongly, since the only new penalty they’d face would be … a higher tax payment.
These teams: the Astros, A’s, Cardinals, Nationals, Padres, Reds, and the Atlanta Braves.
Of these, I think I can safely suggest that the Astros and Athletics might bow out of the bidding early, due to financial considerations… both having already signed high-profile Cubans recently.
The Reds and Padres might be the next pair to show interest, but run out of coin early in the auction.
That would leave the Nats, Cards, and Braves as the most likely serious bidders for Robert…. again, if he becomes available prior to June 15.
Heck, it also would be nice to get a Cuban star before he’s all used up, too.
If that June 15 deadline comes and goes, then many more teams will be in on the bid for Robert… though with limits to their spending power. The Braves and those other teams listed above will be out of the running.
But if available to them, the Braves would do well to bid strong here… Robert could be their last chance for an impact International teen for 2 more years. But what a way to go out.
Stay tuned.