2017 Atlanta Braves Preview: Right-handed Starting Pitcher Mike Foltynewicz
By Scott Ferris
To some fans, it may seem odd getting excited over a 25-year-old with a career earned run average of 4.92 over 56 appearances. To others, flamethrower Mike Foltynewicz is as exciting as they come.
When the Atlanta Braves decided to blow up their big league roster and embark on a full-scale organizational tear down, the farm system saw a tremendous influx of talent. Today, most of those players are still sitting on the team’s top prospect list.
For an (un)lucky few, though, they’ve undergone some trial by fire, taking the field day after day as Atlanta weathers the low-point of the rebuild.
Mike Foltynewicz is one of these players.
Pitching in front of a depleted and uninspiring lineup, Folty, arguably the team’s number two starter last year behind Julio Teheran, went 9-5 with a 4.31 earned run average over 22 starts. For the first time in his three-year big league career, he did not spend any time in the bullpen.
The Pros:
Age: Given the gaggle of teens currently tearing it up in the Atlanta system, Foltynewicz may seem like an old geezer, especially considering 2017 will be his fourth big league campaign. However, he’ll pitch the entire (regular) season at age 25. He’s no spring chicken, but he’s also not that far removed from prospectdom. For reference, he has less than a year on current Rays prospect Jose De Leon.
Stuff: Foltynewicz’s best asset is his fastball. In 2016, he tied the late Jose Fernandez for the fifth highest average fastball velocity among all starters (min. 120 IP).
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- Noah Syndergaard: 97.9 MPH
- James Paxton: 96.8 MPH
- Yordano Ventura: 96.1 MPH
- Carlos Martinez: 95.6 MPH
- Mike Foltynewicz: 95.2 MPH
That figure encompasses both his four-seamer and what PITCHf/x calls a sinker. With the four-seam fastball, Foltynewicz can touch triple digits. He compliments that heater with a mid-80s slider and will sprinkle in a slower curveball and a changeup from time to time.
Approach: Foltynewicz does not like to pitch from behind. Or, at least that’s what his approach would suggest. Per StatCorner, he threw the third highest percentage of pitches while ahead in the count (min. 250 pitches thrown). That may seem like an obscure and meaningless stat but take a look at the top of the list.
- Clayton Kershaw: 43.9%
- Max Scherzer: 43.8%
- Mike Foltynewicz: 42.5%
- Rich Hill: 42.3%
- Steven Matz: 42.2%
That’s two guys with multiple Cy Young’s, a historical anomaly, a well-hyped young starter, and Foltynewicz. Attacking hitters is something a pitcher can do when his stuff is overpowering. If he can prevent batters from making solid contact, it’s something that allows him to rack up strikeouts and limit walks. It’s also how a pitcher can generate K’s while pitching deep into games.
Foltynewicz comes after guys like a top of the rotation stud who doesn’t have time to nibble at the corners of the plate.
*h/t to Jeff Sullivan of FanGraphs for his post highlighting this.
The Cons:
The Longball: The thing about throwing 100 MPH is that solid contact can send the ball into orbit. Foltynewicz improved his groundball rate tremendously last season but remained homer-prone. In 12 of his 22 starts, the opposition left the yard at least once. Admittedly, his 1.31 HR/9 and 13.2% HR/FB are pretty close to the MLB average for starters. That being said, no one enters the season aiming for league average.
Results…: Not sure what else to call this, but often, the outcomes just don’t align with what Foltynewicz can bring to the table. Despite his excellent fastball and solid slider, his swinging strike rate (10.0%) is a bit below league average, batters actually make more contact against him than league average (79.2 Contact% vs. 78.2 league average), and he doesn’t get batters to chase at the level of a frontline starter.
Maybe hitters have figured him out and he’s failed to adjust? Maybe his aggressive approach allows hitters to look for strikes knowing that he often attacks the zone? Maybe his pitches just aren’t deceptive and he has a particularly hittable fastball?
Some of this could be addressed by honing/utilizing his offspeed offering. On a per-pitch basis, Foltynewicz’s changeup graded out as his second best pitch last season. However, he throws it less than 10 percent of the time. Better incorporating this weapon could pay dividends.
Looking Ahead:
Neither Steamer nor ZiPS feels particularly optimistic about his 2017 outlook. Both have him showing a slight improvement in his strikeout rate while regressing heavily in the walk department. They’re also bearish on his ability to stay in the rotation all season or limit runs, both projecting him for 26 starts and an ERA around 4.25.
We may not be the most objective observers, but this feels unnecessarily harsh.
Though on the surface, his numbers leave something to be desired, Foltynewicz has improved tremendously since joining the Braves. In each of his big league seasons, the former first round pick has increased his strikeout and groundball rates while decreasing his walk rate. This, despite spending more and more time as a starter (which typically dampens strikeouts).
Last season, he showed flashes of brilliance.
5/14/16 at KCR: 8.0 IP, 7 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 4 K
7/10/16 at CWS: 7.0 IP, 5 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 10 K
8/27/16 at SFG: 7.2 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 1 HR, 1 BB, 6 K
There aren’t any freak 16 K games in there (yet) but when Folty was feeling it, he could pitch deep into games and limit base runners.
If recent history holds, look for more of these outings in 2017.