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The Top 5 Ways the Atlanta Braves Contend in 2017

By Stephen Tolbert

Sep 9, 2016; Atlanta, GA, USA; Atlanta Braves shortstop Dansby Swanson (2) celebrates a run with first baseman Freddie Freeman (5) off of a RBI single by third baseman Adonis Garcia (not pictured) in the fifth inning of their game against the New York Mets at Turner Field. Mandatory Credit: Jason Getz-USA TODAY Sports
Sep 9, 2016; Atlanta, GA, USA; Atlanta Braves shortstop Dansby Swanson (2) celebrates a run with first baseman Freddie Freeman (5) off of a RBI single by third baseman Adonis Garcia (not pictured) in the fifth inning of their game against the New York Mets at Turner Field. Mandatory Credit: Jason Getz-USA TODAY Sports /
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The best thing about the beginning of baseball season is every team has some level of hope for having a good year. Some teams, like the Cubs or Red Sox, have an abundance of hope. Others, like the Padres or Reds, have much less. For the Atlanta Braves, their level of hope can best be described as ‘more than they’ve had recently, but less than they want’.

The Atlanta Braves spent the off-season upgrading their starting rotation and combined with a lineup that held it’s own the second half of last year, the Braves have definitely increased their chances.

With that, I wanted to look at whether it’s possible for Atlanta to contend in 2017. And if so, what exactly has to happen for them to be playing meaningful games in the fall.

To keep it objective, I’ll also be posting a similar piece on what would have to happen for Atlanta to get the number 1 pick.

Ground Rules

To play this game, we have to set some guidelines.

First, I’m going define contention as a .500 record or better. This is admittedly an arbitrary line but my logic is anything over 81 wins means you’re typically within 3 or 4 games for the postseason. And that seems like a reasonable definition of contention.

Second, we have to set a baseline for this year. Looking at all the available projections for the upcoming season I’m setting Atlanta’s baseline win expectation at 74-88. This, again, is arbitrary but looking at all the data, it’s is a perfectly reasonable summation of the projection systems.

So now that we have our goal and our baseline we need to set some rules:

  • This is the land of the realistic so this will be a list of things that have a reasonable chance of coming true. Yes, if Matt Kemp played like Mike Trout it would greatly help Atlanta’s playoff chances but here on planet earth, that’s not happening.
  • I’m using WAR where applicable. WAR takes true talent and converts it to wins and since we’re trying to get from 74 wins to 81 wins, it works well.
  • To be clear, this is not a list of 5 things that ALL to need to happen for Atlanta to contend. Any one of these alone could be enough.
  • As always with pieces like this, these our my opinions. You will think something different. That’s okay. Just be respectful.

Ok let’s go!

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