Atlanta Braves: Is Jim Johnson done?
He’s been good – sometimes great – for many years, but has Jim Johnson‘s time truly passed?
The Atlanta Braves simply had too many holes in the dam to fill to start this season, and in many respects, they have spent a good portion of the regular season re-filling them.
Take the bullpen – please. Though the collective results have been better overall lately, there have been a host of changes.
Can you even recall all of the pitchers that have been in-and-out of the pen this season? I’ll help: there are 14 names… that’s before Akeel Morris becomes #15 in the next day or two or Dan Winkler gets added to the roster as #16 to avoid being lost because of Rule 5 considerations.
Right now, the active roster has these relievers still in play:
Others who have come and gone (with some still coming and going):
- Mike Foltynewicz, briefly
- Chaz Roe (rehab)
- Josh Collmenter (AAA DL)
- Matt Wisler
- Eric O’Flaherty (DL)
- Arodys Vizcaino (DL)
- Jason Hursh
But after last night’s melt-down, it begs the question as to whether Jim Johnson’s time is done, as he gave up 4 hits, a walk, 3 crucial runs – and effectively – a game that the Braves had all but won against a bitter rival.
The Past Several Weeks
As closer, here is what Johnson has done since May 23rd (20 appearances):
- Batters Faced – 6 3 4 5 8 3 4 5 3 4 4 7 4 5 4 3 7 4 7
- Runs Allowed – 2 0 0 2 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 2 0 0 0 0 1 0 3
In those appearances, the 8 batter outing was over 2 full innings; the first and last outings were for 2 outs only. All of the others were a full inning of work.
Over that period, Johnson has recorded 10 saves, received 4 outright wins, and blown 5 save opportunities in those 6½ weeks. Of course one of those ‘wins’ was vultured out of a blown save.
Before May 23rd. Johnson had blown just 2 saves in the remaining 19 outings.
You can see from the number of batters faced that there has been no such thing as an ‘easy inning’ for Johnson… only 2 occasions have seen him execute a 1-2-3 inning in this stretch.
He’s still getting strikeouts: 11.27 per 9 innings, in fact – his highest K-rate ever. But he’s also walking more (3.05 per 9 innings… one of his highest rates ever, though only marginally up from 2.78 and 2.70 in 2015-2016).
His velocity is down – but only a nit. Fangraphs reports 94.2 mph on the fastball vs. 94.0 last year, but recall that there was a data collection change this year that is giving an artificial boost of about 0.5-0.6 mph. That brings him to about 93.6 mph… still not significant on its own.
Movement?
Brooksbaseball.net has a bunch of useful data on … everything. Johnson’s pitching card includes info on what they call “grooved pitches”… which is what you’d think they are: the most hittable stuff.
Johnson’s sinker is still working normally… ‘grooved’ about 5% of the time. However, his 4-seam fastball is hitting the middle of the zone an astonishing 25% of the time here in July.
That said, I should clarify that since the velocities are essentially identical, the only difference between Johnson’s 4-seamer and a sinker is really this: if the sinker doesn’t sink, it looks a regular fastball, so that could be part of it.
Add to that 25% the rate that his Changeups are being grooved: 16.67%. Fortunately, he doesn’t use that changeup much (under 7%), but the Sinker is his bread-and-butter (58%+) with a strong down-angle curve (30%) backing that up.
The 4-seamer only comes into use 4.5% of the time, but again, I don’t know how a batter sees a difference if the sinker doesn’t sink… and on ball in play after May, Johnson is giving up line drives at a higher-than-normal rate: 33% on the sinker, 50% on the changeup this month.
The Brooks’ Movement charts show – if anything – an increase in vertical movement this month on the sinker, so that’s not the problem.
Those numbers have been worse in the past, though: 2016 saw batters killing the ball against him at times… when they made contact – at a higher rate than the past two months this season.
Year-over-year, Johnson’s HR-to-Fly-Ball rate is consistent (7%) grounder rate slightly down (55% to 51.5%) and BABIP slightly up (.323 vs. 314 last year), though opponent batting average against is down (.228 vs. .235).
Overall: Johnson WHIP is slightly up 1.23 vs. 1.19 last year, but his ERA is sharply up (4.23 from 3.06).
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Conclusions?
But the reason for the bad outcomes? Hitters sitting on a particular pitch? Simply a bad stretch?
Honestly, it seems to be more the latter – for the data show that Johnson seems to be essentially what he’s always been… and sometimes good hitters will get you; sometimes you’ll get them.
Is that a satisfactory answer? No – in fact, when I started writing, I expected to find data that would show Jim Johnson losing his edge or that his pitches were somehow markedly different from normal.
I’m not finding that.
Other Factors
Snitker was correct in arguing that checked-swing ruling -- Wieters didn't check his swing. Turned out to be an impactful missed call. https://t.co/SOqpPraPbH
— David O'Brien (@DOBrienATL) July 8, 2017
That might have mattered – for sure. A missed grounder by Brandon Phillips also mattered as the inning got underway.
Brian Snitker seemed to back up his closer, too:
#Braves' Snitker: "The guy’s a horse, he takes the ball all the time. I’ve got no problem with Jim Johnson. He’s saved our rear so much."
— David O'Brien (@DOBrienATL) July 8, 2017
It was bad last night – no doubt. But like it or not, the calls for Johnson’s head may be a bit premature. We could be going in that direction based on trends, but the numbers suggest that last night was a bit of an aberration… and hopefully the worst of what’s simply a bad run.