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Atlanta Braves may have the best prospect in baseball in Acuna

By Alan Carpenter

MIAMI, FL - JULY 09: Ronald Acuna #24 of the Atlanta Braves and the World Team swings at a pitch against the U.S. Team during the SiriusXM All-Star Futures Game at Marlins Park on July 9, 2017 in Miami, Florida. (Photo by Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images)
MIAMI, FL - JULY 09: Ronald Acuna #24 of the Atlanta Braves and the World Team swings at a pitch against the U.S. Team during the SiriusXM All-Star Futures Game at Marlins Park on July 9, 2017 in Miami, Florida. (Photo by Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images) /
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Ronald Acuna’s performance this year is accelerating him toward the majors at a shocking rate and people are (finally) taking notice

The Atlanta Braves have known for a while that Ronald Acuna was pretty good.  But there’s no way they could have forecast this kind of trajectory for their Venezuelan teen phenom.

The plot line for the 1993 movie “Rookie of the Year” (which came out 4 years before Acuna was born) involves a 12-year-old who has a broken arm that heals “too tightly” which suddenly gives him a 103 mph fastball and a contract with the Minnesota Twins.

In late Spring last year, Acuna suffered a thumb injury that sidelined him for 3 full months and cost him a lot of experience at Rome.  Since returning from that malady, he’s been unstoppable.  Was that thumb wired a bit better for him?

Of course the flaw of that allusion to the movie is that he was already hitting .300 with a 131 wRC+ at Rome before the injury… and still early on after turning 18.

This season, the Braves are still trying to find a league in which to challenge Acuna.  He’s only getting better with every step up the ladder:

  • High-A Florida:  28 games, .287 / .336 / .478 / .814
  • AA Mississippi:  57 games, .326 / .374 / .520 / .895
  • AAA Gwinnett:  29 games, .330 / .403 / .539 / .942

That he’s been promoted twice this year is notable.  That he’s getting better at each level is surprising.  That he’s still just 19 years old and doing all of this is just stunning.

So others are figuring this out…

Bandwagon Tickets Now on Sale

Let’s see how the changes have been evolving this year for Acuna’s rankings:

BASEBALL AMERICA

  • AUG 2016 – Not listed – 6 Braves (at least) ahead of him
  • FEB 10 – 67th overall prospect
  • JULY 7 – 10th overall prospect

MLB PIPELINE

  • 2016 – 18th … on the Braves-only list
  • 2017 – 8th … overall, and #1 on the Braves’ list

TOMAHAWKTAKE (No, we weren’t immune)

  • 2016 – 5th … on the Braves-only list
  • 2017 – #1

CALLTOTHEPEN

But is Acuna the Best Overall Now?

Here’s Baseball America’s current Top 10:… with their numbers for 2017…

  • Yoan Moncada (2B) – AAA:  .282/.377/.447/.823 (12 HR/36RBI/102K/17SB in 309 AB)
  • Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (3B) – A/A+:  .313/.416/.456/.873 (8HR/56RBI/52K/8SB in 364 AB)
    • 95 AB in A+
  • Gleyber Torres (SS) – AA/AAA:  .287/.383/.480/.863 (7HR/34RBI/47K/7SB in 202 AB)
  • Amed Rosario (SS) – AAA:  .328/.367/.466/.833 (7HR/58RBI/67K/19SB in 393 AB)
  • Eloy Jimenez (OF) – A+:  .308/.384/.568/.952 (14HR/55RBI/52K/0SB in 250 AB)
  • Rafael Devers (3B) – AA/AAA:  .311/.377/.578/.955 (20HR/60RBI/63K/0SB in 322 AB)
    • Only 35 AB in AAA (1.047 OPS)
  • Brendan Rodgers (SS) – A+/AA:  .348/.384/.592/.976 (18HR/63RBI/62K/2SB in 353 AB)
    • Of note: big drop-off in AA so far (.767 OPS) in 143 AB
  • Victor Robles (OF) – A+/AA:  .281/.367/.475/.842 (9HR/39RBI/74K/19SB in 360 AB)
    • 69 AB in AA
  • Nick Senzel (3B) – A+/AA:  .320/.382/.507/.889 (11HR/59RBI/91K/12SB in 416 AB)
    • improved since AA promotion; 22 years old
  • Ronald Acuna (OF) – A+/AA/AAA:  .317/.372/.514/.887 (16HR/62RBI/121K/36SB in 451 AB)

Oh wait… there’s an update:

Okay – lots of numbers there.  Some ways to cut through the stats:

  • Devers and Moncada will ‘graduate’ off the prospect rolls by years’ end, so they don’t fully count.  You could still argue that Acuna’s numbers have been at least equal with them, if not better in most cases.
  • Excepting the major leaguers in this group, only Torres is now at the AAA level
  • Only Rodgers and Jimenez have a higher OPS… though those happened in High-A
  • Only Guerrero is younger (18-1/2)
  • Oh, and we didn’t even mention his defense… which is premium-level quality

As people have caught on to what Acuna is doing, the conclusion is becoming inescapable: he’s already the best in the minors and everyone is scrambling to catch up with their assessments.

Here’s fanragsports.com/minorleagueball.com’s Wayne Cavadi – their Braves’ watcher – said on Friday:

"Ronald Acuna is the best prospect in baseball.You can make the argument that there are others who should vie for that spot, but Acuna’s meteoric rise plays a big role."

He also quoted BaseballAmerica in their write-up of Acuna in July:

"“The speed with which Acuna has adapted to higher levels of play is startling, … He spent just 40 games at low Class A last season in an injury-truncated year, but that didn’t stop him from rocketing to Triple-A this year in mid-July. Acuna fits the five-tool paradigm and has star potential.”"

Coming Soon to a Park Near You?

More from Tomahawk Take

There are a couple of things that could give the Braves pause in promoting Acuna one more time this year:

  • 121 strikeouts is around 20%.  Not ugly by any means, but something to watch. Breaking pitches might be an issue (Swanson Syndrome?).
  • He also has taken just 39 walks, a tad low considering that you might expect pitchers to work around him more.
  • As Cavadi points out, his base-running can be too aggressive; a few more ‘caught stealings’ than preferred.

There’s another reason why the Braves might choose to keep Acuna out of the majors this year – that being the tightness of the 40-man roster.  He’s not on it (yet) and by giving him a slot for a September call-up, that could mean the loss of another player for this December’s Rule 5 draft.

It’s also possible that the Braves may not care.  Here’s Dave O’Brien’s thoughts on the subject, which hint of such a thing:

"Acuna is so good, the Braves might just add him to the 40-man roster anyway this season and call him up, let him get a taste of the majors as a teen – he turns 20 in December — and let their fans see the dynamic kid who could be manning an outfield spot as soon as next spring."

Next: Looking for a Few Good Homes

Whenever this promotion happens, it could signal the turn of a page in the recent history of the Atlanta Braves as the offense moves into high gear with an outfield that doesn’t see many balls find grass on defense.

Exciting times to come.

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