How hard will it be for the Atlanta Braves to reset their outfield?

Admittedly, this is a problem that the team probably didn’t anticipate – that circumstances, performance and prodigy would all conspire to shuffle plans for 2018.  But how?

Multiple reports now suggest that the Atlanta Braves want to make a space for Ronald Acuna for 2018.  That much is fairly obvious.

But the same reports suggest as well that the team would be interested in moving both Matt Kemp and Nick Markakis.

If so, it won’t be easy – or cheap.  That much is certain.

Worse Case Scenario

Let’s suppose that the Braves want to wipe the slate clean on their own.  Not likely, but let’s at least throw it out there.  How much does that cost?

• Matt Kemp:  $43.5 million (minus $6 m total credit back from San Diego/LAD)
• Nick Markakis:  $10.5 million
• Jim Johnson:  $4.5 million
• R.A. Dickey:  $500K option buyout

Wait a sec – Johnson and Dickey?  They aren’t outfielders.

Obviously – but their prices are still going to be part of the calculus.

So if Atlanta were to clear the decks completely, the price would be $52.5 million.  That’s not going to happen. The Braves might eat some money, but this is crazy money.

I do expect a buyout of Johnson’s contract.  Even at $4.5 million, it’s hard to imagine a taker.

Dickey’s option may depend on Coppy’s confidence in acquiring another frontline starter… which would happen later.  The other possibility is that his money could be ‘used’ to assist in selling a suitor on Matt Kemp.

Slightly Better Options

What are the priorities?

MATT KEMP

Finding a new home for Matt Kemp is probably #1, and that demands an American League team.

But remember this from last January?  There were multiple sluggers having trouble finding a job.  That hasn’t been an uncommon trend, either – Justin Upton lingered in 2016 until the Tigers inked him… so long, in fact, that the Braves had even placed a tepid bid.

In the end, exactly 5 free agent outfielders were inked to contracts of more than 1 year, and just 3 of those committed any team beyond $50m (Yoenis Cespedes for $110m; Dexter Fowler for $82.5m; Josh Reddick $52m).

• Not Mark Trumbo?  Nope – $37.5m for 3 yrs.
• Not Jose Bautista?  Nope – a single year at $18m (plus a probable $500k buyout of mutual option)
• Pedro Alvarez and his 20+ homers?  Pfft… one year, $2 million… and zero production.

So who needs Kemp… at any price?  Let’s tour the American League for DH needs:

• Houston (Carlos Beltran, pending free agent).  No matter how this season concludes for the Astros, they have to pay Justin Verlander and they have Gattis or McCann.  No go for Kemp.
• Indians.  Encarnacion… and a big payroll.
• Tigers.  Rebuilding.  Not adding money.
• White Sox.  Not very likely.
• Royals.  Will be rebuilding and Brandon Moss was at least as good… at 1/3rd of the price.
• Yankees (Matt Holliday – pending free agent).  While New York could probably use Kemp, my suspicion is that they would be happier trying to fill this position from within.
• Red Sox – Hanley Ramirez isn’t going anywhere… at least not yet.
• Baltimore – Trumbo
• Toronto – starting their own rebuild shortly.
• Rays – not going to pay for Kemp at any price.
• Angels – Pujols
• A’s – not going to pay for Kemp and have a couple of better options
• Mariners – Cruz
• Twins – not likely

So… the Yankees or nothing?  Even at half price or less, it would take considerable convincing to off-load Kemp.  So already, this is looking like a real tough sell, for it’s hard to imagine Atlanta either eating $30 million or so or kicking in a pitcher.

Best guess:  he stays.  Maybe spending more time as a bench bat and occasional DH, but he stays.

NICK MARKAKIS

One year and $10.5 million.  The publicly prevailing thoughts are that for a single year deal, Nick is worth that – at least on field if not also in the clubhouse.

Maybe, but (a) rebuilding clubs might not see it that way; and (b) others tend to look at players like Markakis as useful, but final pieces of their own off-season roster-building, which could mean that Atlanta might be able to move him – but later than earlier.

Best guess:  he goes, but the Braves also kick in $2 million.

So the New Outfield?

Two positions are obvious, so long as everybody gets through Spring okay:  Inciarte and Acuna in CF/RF in some order.  Inciarte holds a CF Gold Glove, but has also played RF in the majors.  That drama is for Spring, though.

What about left field?  Kemp?  Lane Adams?  Somebody else?

Want a crazy idea?  Try this:

• The Angels got Justin Upton for their stretch run, perhaps hoping that he opts-out of his contract.
• if not, that could hamstring the Angels, who are now committed to 3 players with deals over $22m and probably $160+ million again.
• So maybe swap Kemp and Upton under those circumstances?

The bad news, of course, would be the $88.6m remaining on his deal over the next 4 seasons.  It would be a risky bet – an expensive bet regardless.

I don’t expect this to happen – I do expect significant, creative efforts to try and get Kemp elsewhere.  If so, then the idea of keeping Nick Markakis becomes more palatable.

If somehow, Atlanta moves both corner men, then I think they’d be happy to take their chances with Inciarte, Acuna, and a wild card.

Next: The Knuckleheads from Knockahoma: back again

We’ll worry about that if it actually happens.