Come’on Keith: Atlanta Braves should not even consider trading Ender Inciarte

Some ideas are useful.  Some ideas should be flushed before they see the light of day.  Trading Inciarte is one of the latter.

I had hoped that this was already over and done with.  This notion that with Ronald Acuna coming, the Atlanta Braves should not worry about moving either Matt Kemp or Nick Markakis and instead get a deal for Ender Inciarte.  We already dealt with it – I thought – close to 3 weeks ago.

First of all, a thanks to Nala (that’s Freddie Freeman‘s cat) for capturing this moment:

Well, you’ve at least got to admit that Keith Law is consistent.  This time he’s going a bit deeper into his reasoning.

Yes:  it’s going to be difficult to trade Markakis.  In my early team team budget spreadsheet, I allowed for the probability that Atlanta would have to send cash to move him.  But I do think there is probably a team that would like to have him and his clubhouse presence.

Yes:  it’s going to be practically impossible to trade Matt Kemp.  We’ve been there, too.  In fact, I am assuming that he’s not going anywhere.  I get all that.

History Lessons

But both of those scenarios are a far distance away from suggesting that the Braves keep both corner outfielders, trade away a Gold Glove winner, and insert a rookie who – while extremely promising – is still completely untested at the major league level.

Anybody remember 1996?  Anyone?  The situation was a bit different given the trajectory of the team, but Andruw Jones was brought up in September and given a look – mostly in right field – while Marquis Grissom was still on the team.

Who played RF that year?  It was a committee before Jones arrived:  David Justice, Jermaine Dye (the plurality of innings went to him), Mark Whiten, and Dwight Smith.

Don’t Diss the Defense

But for 2018, it’s not like center field is the only position these guys can play:  Inciarte recorded 13 Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) in 2015 as a member of the Diamondbacks… and another 12 in left field (and no – I have no idea how the guy with more 5-star catches in CF both this season and last is only credited with 5 DRS for 2017).

Currently, the Red Sox and Rays lead baseball in outfield DRS with 47 and 45, respectively.  The Yankees are a distant 3rd at 33.  However…

The Braves are 28th with -29 (bad even if you believe that Ender’s ‘+5’ is comically low).  Think that the Braves might want a defensive upgrade in the outfield?  Particularly with a pack of young pitchers toeing the rubber?

So Acuna’s an excellent defender, but would the Braves even want to thrust him into the fray of a major league season having traded away their backup plan – a 200+ hit, .304 average table-setter?

Heck, if Kemp can at least hit, then station him near the left field line next year and have the other two guys roam the entire rest of the outfield grass… it would probably work.

Let’s go one step further

Remember all those charts I ran through yesterday?  If not, I’ll invite you to peruse them at your leisure.  In the meantime, here’s the Cliff Notes version:  batting averages matter.  Hits matter.

There’s a direct correlation between hitting and run-production.  No team should be giving up a .300 hitter if they are having trouble scoring runs… or preventing runs, for that matter.

In short, there’s 3 reasons to keep Inciarte around:  his own defense, hitting, and for total outfield defense.

Sure – all of that is valuable.  If this were 2 years ago, I might say differently, for all of those qualities would bring a high return (see the Adam Eaton trade).  But they also will be in play for the next 4-to-5 years alongside Acuna when this team should be kicking the National League around for sport.

If the Braves were to trade all that away, it would be tantamount to what the Diamondbacks after 2015… they decided they had ‘surplus value’ at the center field position and included Inciarte in a certain trade with Atlanta.

Heck, you could argue that Coppy already did that himself – with a shortstop named Andrelton Simmons.

Next: I Don't Know is on Third

So just stop it, Keith.