Atlanta Braves pitchers may be less susceptible to ligament issues?

The MLB Trade Rumors site is all about trades, rumors, and transactions. But they are also about analysis… and a chart predicting ‘Tommy John’ vulnerability is fascinating…in a macabre kind of way.

This is the second year that MLBTR has issued its TJ predictability report… and there are the names of a few Atlanta Braves pitchers on it. But that’s actually not so bad.

What Bradley Woodrum has put together is essentially an ‘expert system’ (Artificial Intelligence term) that looks at risk factors he believes are associated with pitching injury (19 of them), and assigns weights to them in order to assess a total risk profile for each pitcher.

This is not a complete profile. Minor league pitchers, for instance, are omitted. Major league pitchers may not have enough data for him to work with. As a result, this is still a work in progress.

That said, results are starting to come together. For his 2017 model revision, his historic data suggests that pitchers having TJ surgery are indeed ‘riskier’ than those not.

I do recommend the full read of his work for the context of this information.

Braves Pitchers Named

Let’s start with the ‘most at risk’ (where 0% represents “average”) and work from there:

Aaron Blair. 428% risk factor in 2016; not listed for 2017 (AAA).
(Tyrell Jenkins also hit 428%, by the way)
Ian Krol. -67% in 2016 (that’s excellent); 492% in 2017 (bad).
Sean Newcomb: 19%
Mike Foltynewicz: 19%, 17% for 2016-17
Chris Withrow: -40% in 2016
Mauricio Cabrera: -40 in 2016
Sam Freeman: -40% in 2017
Julio Teheran: -58% in both years
Jim Johnson: -67% and -73%
Matt Wisler: -73% for 2016

Bartolo Colon hit numbers of 14% and -58%. Alex Wood: -75%, 19%. It is apparent that several pitchers (Max Fried, Lucas Sims, etc.) were deemed not to have enough data to declare a finding.

Aaron Blair should take particular note, given his numbers from last year. He is the only Braves pitcher tracked with such a high risk profile.

Some pitchers defy the numbers, of course. Witness Shelby Miller: -40% in 2016 and a TJ victim this season. Or most of the Mets staff… mostly for other injury reasons.

The worst on the chart:

Anthony DeSclafani (707%; 2016 only)
Will Smith (684%; 2016 only)
Martin Perez (631% cumulative from 2016 and 2017, with a whopping 869% risk factor last season)

The best: ties between Chad Green, Trevor Rosenthal, Josh Hader, Sean Doolittle, and Seung Hwan Oh – all at -93%.

Then there’s R.A. Dickey, of whom it was said:

"That weirdo R.A. Dickey — who physically lacks a UCL in his right elbow — has been stricken from all the data, and did not influence the construction of the model."

There are some advantages to being weird!

More from Tomahawk Take

As an explanation for some of the wild swings in risk numbers for one year to the next, the case of Jeff Samardzija is instructive:

"Jeff Samardzija had one of the worst Risk+ numbers from the 2016 data, but his 2017 data suggests below-average risk. Looking at this pitch repertoire, he has thrown way fewer four-seam fastballs and cut fastballs this season, pushing his curveball across the plate at almost a 15% rate, according to Pitch Info stats. In 2016, he threw curves at a rate of 8%. He has also allowed less medium-strength contact, though I still struggle to find the intuitive connection between hitter contact strength and pitcher elbow injuries."

There will be more data collected and Woodrum promises to continue to refine and update his model as time goes forward.

“Success” with this data will be elusive, as reality will overcome models every time, but if this model does prove useful, it could ultimately serve pitchers by suggesting changes before personal disaster strikes.

Next: Oh no, not again!

Hopefully, Braves pitchers will continue to enjoy lower-risk ratings without having to make such changes.

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