Atlanta Braves’ 2017 Positional Reviews: 2nd base

Second in a series, this 2017 review looks at the 2nd base position compared to the rest of baseball.

The Atlanta Braves used just a handful of keystone men this season… and really only two. But it’s not this year that we’re curious about for this position – it’s more looking forward to 2018.

The Braves got great mileage out of Brandon Phillips‘ last contract year, though that proved merely to keep the seat warm whilst we awaited the arrival of Ozzie Albies. After a week or so to get acquainted with the new venue, he went nuts – recording 1.9 fWAR over just 57 games.

Here’s the 2017 stat report for the primary second basemen:

Phillips: 120 games, 499 PA, .291/.329/.423/.752, 97 wRC+, 11.4% K rate, 3.8% BB rate, 11HR, 68R, 52RBI, 10 steals
Albies: 57G, 244 PA, .286/.354/.456/.810, 112 wRC+, 14.8% K rate, 8.6% BB rate, 6HR, 34R, 28RBI, 8 steals. Also, 5 triples.

(Johan Camargo, Danny Santana, Sean Rodriguez and Jace Peterson also had some cameo appearances there – Jace the only one over 100 innings).

If you double Albies’ raw numbers, you arrive at his expected performance for the same period that Phillips’ played. Triple them and you extrapolate for the whole season. Just for fun, let’s do that:

171 games (okay, a bit high), 732 PA, 18 HR, 102 Runs, 84 RBI, 24 steals, 5.7 fWAR… and 15 triples

That would be something. More on that in a bit.

MLB Comparison

Combining our 2B stats and comparing them with all other teams, here’s what we find:

Best offensive WAR component: Astros (duh). Braves 8th overall, though.
Best fWAR: Indians (Braves tied for 10th)
Best average: Astros (.346; next closest was Nats with .299). Braves 8th with .283.
Best OBP: Astros (.410). Braves 12th with .337.
Best OPS: Astros (.957). Braves 8th (.766)
wRC+: Astros (160), Braves 10th (101).
Walk Rate: Dodgers (13.3%), Braves 23rd (6.1%)
K Rate: Astros (12.7%), Braves 4th (14.2%)
Doubles: Indians (87), Braves 15th (37)
Triples: Pirates (12), Braves 12th (6)
Homers: Cubs (64 – something’s wrong with that number for this position), Braves 19th with 19.
Steals: Marlins (60), Braves 10th (19).

(Yes, a lot of those numbers are a celebration of the phenomenon that is Jose Altuve)

Defensively:

DRS (Defensive Runs Saved): White Sox 20 (next closest was 10), Braves 26th (-7)
Plays: Rockies 347; Braves 9th with 287.
RZR (Revised Zone Rating – “the proportion of balls hit into a fielder’s zone that he successfully converted into an out”): Cardinals 80.4%, Braves 12th at 77.8%
OOZ (Out of Zone plays): White Sox 109, Braves 23rd with 58
Putouts: Orioles 339, Braves 22nd with 265
Assists: Rockies 514, Braves 15th at 420
Errors: Mets 6, Braves 10th with 11

Let’s separate these a bit.

Albies had +1 DRS, 81.2% RZR and had an overall defensive rating of 4.4 compared to 1.1 for Phillips.
Phillips wasn’t bad – but clearly seemed a step or two behind Albies
The rest of the numbers were proportionately either consistent or statistically too narrow (errors) to compare effectively
Both were better than Jace Peterson or any other player used at 2B recently

Historic Perspective

Since 1980, the Braves had 59 second basemen appear with at least 200 PA in a single season. Of those:

Marcus Giles had the best OPS (.917 in 2003). He also had the best fWAR with 6.7 that year and was a hitting machine (.316 with 49 doubles and 21 homers). Giles was also second on that list with 5.2 WAR/.826 OPS in 2005.
Martin Prado recorded 3.9 WAR in 2010/.809 OPS
Albies’ 112 wRC+ already is 10th on this list and his .810 OPS ranks 8th

Defensively, Albies has been good and could get a bit better, though would rank behind several former Braves: Mark Lemke and Glenn Hubbard primarily.

However, when you combine the offensive and defensive potential that Albies showed, there are not many peers. Giles is the best comparison – perhaps between he and Quilvio Veras (2000-2001).

Conclusions:

More from Tomahawk Take

The Braves will have to choose between three possible lead-off men in their 2018 lineup: Ender Inciarte, Ozzie Albies, and Ronald Acuna. That makes for a very interesting call – but a topic for another day.

If you believe the numbers, Albies could end up being a Top 5 offensive player at this position and Top 10 defensively. That’s a potent combination.

Overall, Albies was clearly the right choice for the position once coming to the majors. He could quickly ascend to the Top 10 in overall fWAR and OPS.

Defensively he should still be in the top half, if not top 10.

I’m not quite ready to anoint Albies with the title of Best Second Baseman Since _____ (insert your favorite Brave here), as I am wary of the ‘Swanson Effect’.

Dansby Swanson started out very well in 2016, but struggled mightily this season. Albies could endure the same kind of sophomore slump…

…Except that I don’t really think so. He has always hit throughout every level of the minors and seems to have made the adjustments asked for that kept him from getting to Atlanta sooner.

As with 1st base, it would be difficult to find a better player for this position – even if you were looking. While it’s still possible that the team might consider swapping he and Swanson positionally, I personally think his range and arm play well at second and his bat is more impressive than expected.

Next: You already know Who is on First

Albies is still just 20 years old – with a well-timed extension, he could be a Brave for the next decade-plus. And should be.

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