Atlanta Braves 2018 Payroll Update

A few weeks ago, we took a quick guess at Braves payroll considerations for 2018.  It’s time for a monthly update.

It was September 22nd when we made our first foray into guessing an Atlanta Braves‘ payroll for Opening Day 2018, and a couple of key things changed since then.

First, let me review the assumptions made at that time:

• Nick Markakis will be playing elsewhere in 2018
• To help make that happen, the Braves will provide $2 million to the acquiring team
• Jim Johnson will be released
• Matt Kemp will remain with the club; Matt Adams would not
• R.A. Dickey‘s $8 million option is picked up; remains with club
• Ian Krol – gone
• Adonis Garcia – gone
• Kurt Suzuki is resigned at an estimate $2.5 million (was $1.5m in 2017).
• Arbitration figures are estimated at this time… 4 players are eligible (Folty, Jace, Vizzy, and Winkler)
• Lots of ‘internal option’ guys are on the chart at this time…. rotation, positions, bench, and bullpen
• An extra half-million has been thrown in for the inevitable ‘DL guy’ who makes the team, but is hurt – requiring an extra player to replace him; hopefully there’s only one!

So far… it’s been pretty close, aside from one surprise.  Here’s what has transpired since then:

• R.A. Dickey – this is the surprise, though we discussed the possibilities on this last month.

But now his 2018 option has been declined.  With no word about retiring, several reporters/bloggers from elsewhere are already jumping on his bandwagon, including the Reds, Mariners, and Orioles.

The latest (from Oct. 18):  Dickey is going to discuss retirement with his family and make a decision by November 14th.  But curiously enough, the Braves opted not to wait on that decision, which wasn’t nearly due yet.

• Kurt Suzuki was re-inked to a raise exceeding my expectations:  he gets $3.5 million.
• Ian Krol was outrighted, and has since elected free agency.

New Numbers

But the removal of Dickey from the equation lowers the payroll estimate.  We had pegged this number at $89.9 million last month.  The new figure is $82.9 million.

UPDATE:  Errors were made.  Corrections have been applied.  Boggy is now being hat tipped.

The differences are these:

• Subtract Dickey, but leaving his $500K contract option buyout
• Insert a new minimum salary pitcher in his stead (I chose Max Fried)
• Increase Suzuki’s contract price
• …and the corrections

Also interesting is that with Dickey’s departure, the estimate OD average age of the team drops to 26.9 years, down from 27.8!

As before, don’t get too tied up with the names of the minimum-salaried guys – regardless of the name, those numbers will end up being the same unless the Braves shock us with a free agent or find a trading partner.

But this is a number that provides perhaps $40 million of budget space… and that could buy a lot, should the team choose to go in that direction.

Next: So it's 'Root, root, root' for the... Astros?

Will continue to track this periodically as the off-season progresses.