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Relax, Atlanta Braves fans… nobody is giving up on Swanson… yet

By Alan Carpenter

ATLANTA, GA - SEPTEMBER 24: Dansby Swanson #7 of the Atlanta Braves tosses to Johan Camargo #17 who throws to first for a conversion of a double play as Cesar Hernandez #16 of the Philadelphia Phillies is forced out at second in the sixth inning of an MLB game at SunTrust Park on September 24, 2017 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Todd Kirkland/Getty Images)
ATLANTA, GA - SEPTEMBER 24: Dansby Swanson #7 of the Atlanta Braves tosses to Johan Camargo #17 who throws to first for a conversion of a double play as Cesar Hernandez #16 of the Philadelphia Phillies is forced out at second in the sixth inning of an MLB game at SunTrust Park on September 24, 2017 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Todd Kirkland/Getty Images) /
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Buster Olney caused a bit of a stir on Sunday, but so far that rumor isn’t what it was made out to be.

The Atlanta Braves are concerned about defense.  We talked about this topic on the weekend based on Alex Anthopoulos’ recent Q&A session with A-listers.

But there was one name I deliberately didn’t discuss at that point… and circumstances force us to revisit that now.

Dansby Swanson

First off, here’s what Olney had to say, in full context (emphasis added):

"The Blue Jays, looking for some infield depth, traded for Aledmys Diaz. The Orioles need to identify a shortstop and might wait for market prices to fall within their range, a strategy that has worked for them repeatedly. The Braves have checked around about shortstops, perhaps to buy more development time for Dansby Swanson, who is coming off a rough 2017 season.For this fall’s class of free-agent shortstops — [Zack] Cozart, Alcides Escobar and J.J. Hardy — there is a remarkably small group of teams that could emerge to bid."

I’m really not going to blame Olney much for what amounts to a half-truth, and that’s because there’s some ‘dot connecting’ that one could construe.

I pulled up the defensive stats on fangraphs for all 2017 MLB shortstops with 700+ innings at the position (roughly half a season) and ranked them on Defensive Runs Saved.

At the number 1 position – duh – is Andrelton Simmons:  +32.  Nobody else is close.  Only 3 others were even in double-digits.

There are 26 names on the page:

Would you prefer the UZR/150 numbers?  Okay…

Fangraphs’ total defensive score?  Okay…

  • Swanson 14th – right at mid-pack
  • Turner 16th
  • Andrus 19
  • Correa 21

But if we stick with DRS for sake of comparison, Swanson’s -7 was 3rd worst on the club to Tyler Flowers (-9 in half a season of innings) and Matt Kemp (-17 in about 100 more innings than Flowers).

So after the thought that the Braves could be solid up the middle last season, that didn’t go so well in the hole.  He wasn’t terrible, but there’s definitely room for improvement.

But is there a change coming?

No.  Or at least “not yet”.

Writing Sunday for the AJC.com (subscription required unless you hit ‘Ctrl-A’ and ‘Ctrl-C’ really quickly), Dave O’Brien address this subject, but his words – meant to clarify Olney’s report – may actually have been speaking on both sides of the argument:

"Rather [than aiming to give Swanson more development time], they’re looking for a proven shortstop who can back up several positions around the infield, a need because Johan Camargo could end up playing an everyday role at third base instead of serving as a utility man."

Okay, that part makes sense.  However, equivocation ruled the day as he also later said this:

"According to a person close to the situation, Anthopoulos won’t guarantee a spot for any young player just because of current or former prospect status, but the Braves have some players that Anthopoulos and the team are counting on to be everyday players including Albies and Swanson."

…and this…

"The Braves and their revamped front office remain optimistic about Swanson’s long-term future and he’s penciled in as the regular shortstop for 2018, though Anthopoulos will reserve the right to make changes at any position if he thinks a change is needed."

Well, thanks for clearing that up, Dave.  In other words, the position is Swanson’s … unless it’s not.

Now you might think “that should be the case for every player – if you suck, you should be replaced”.  I can’t argue that point and I won’t try.  If you can’t play, you’re at risk of being replaced – it happens all the time.

With Swanson, though, it’s about the adjustments – and he needs them on both sides of the ball.

At the plate, he needs to recognize sliders better.  In the field, he needs to make the routine plays better before thinking about anything more.  If he can do this, then all’s well.

Meaning…?

More from Tomahawk Take

It does sound like the team is after somebody to replace Jace Peterson in a super-utility role, though, and that means somebody in the mold Paul Janish/Ramiro Pena/Jack Wilson that checks these boxes:

  • veteran
  • known as a decent defender (more glove/less bat)
  • can handle any infield position
  • cheap

Instead, it’s 3rd base where some hand-wringing might be going on, but O’Brien thinks that Johan Camargo gets first crack at winning the job this Spring… with the thought that Austin Riley could soon (in another year) be knocking on that door.

So for those speculating about somebody like Zack Cozart, there’s virtually no scenario that gets him to Atlanta as a Brave unless his price drops dramatically.  That would be surprising for somebody who pulled off a 5 WAR contract year with career highs in homers, walks, average, slugging, OBP, and OPS (without significant home/away splits).

Next: Signs of Our Times

At least that’s the way it looks for now.

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