Atlanta Braves: let’s go shopping in the seafood aisle
Trades are supposed to be beneficial to both sides, though many teams are reluctant to engage with division rivals. But let’s try.
At this time, the Atlanta Braves are heading to Disney World… not for fun and frivolity and not for Spring Training… but to engage in a team building exercise called ‘the Winter Meetings’
The quest for Giancarlo Stanton is neither going nearly as quickly nor as well as the Marlins’ new ownership would like. Late word this morning is that with Stanton chilling on the idea of moving to either San Francisco or St. Louis, more teams are being mentioned as possibilities that he would consider – among them being the Dodgers (duh), the Yankees, Cubs, Astros.
So what if the Marlins can’t move their big slugger? As it happens, Plan B may already be cranking up, as Dee Gordon was shipped to Seattle – the furthest possible point away from Miami. That may not necessarily be a message, but it kind of feels like one.
An Aside
Truth is, former owner Jeffrey Loria sabotaged the Marlins before dumping the team on Derek Jeter & Co. – with a tidy profit as that.
How so? By heavily backloading multiple contracts and then exiting to make the servicing of those contracts become someone else’s problem.
It’s not just Stanton’s deal: his salary was “just” $9 million in 2016 and $14.5 million in 2017. Now it jumps to $25 million this next season and even higher later on.
Wei-Yin Chen had a 5 year deal that started in 2016 at $12.5 million and it leaps to $20 million in 2019. But he’s only pitched 156 innings in the 1st 2 years of that contract and with his balky elbow, that’s looking like a disaster deal.
Dee Gordon?? $3.3m in 2016, but $10m this year before getting to $13m+ in 2019-20. At least that one’s now off their books.
Getting Creative
So now, how could the Braves get involved? First, let’s identify the plausible targets:
- Marcel Ozuna. Projected arbitration salary of $10.9m; 2 years of control remaining. Boras client, so it’s a maximum of 2 years with him and that arbitration guess might be a little low
- Christian Yelich. Under team control via extended contract through 2022. Backloaded deal, but not unreasonably so.
- J.T. Realmuto. You can probably forget about him… if the new regime in Miami is going to hold onto anyone, it’s this guy, who’s just now first-time arbitration-eligible.
It’s fair to think – especially given what we’ve heard about the deals that St. Louis and San Fran have put together in the pursuit of Stanton – that the new Marlins care more about money and less about prospects. That doesn’t mean ‘zero prospects’, but it suggests less emphasis on getting a premium return.
So here’s where I do a ‘180’ on something I hadn’t allowed myself to consider previously.
The Braves would have good reason to target Yelich for the outfield. He’s going to hit close to .300, he’s going to hit 20 homers each year, he gets on base, and he’s a decent defender. At 4.5 WAR over the past 2 seasons, that’s a $38 million value as fangraphs would tell us.
Martin Prado may not be the player he once was, though it is notable that he posted 6.7 fWAR in 2015-16 before playing hurt (if at all) during 2017. But for a team in need of better defense at third base, he would fit the Braves’ needs… if not their schedule, perhaps.
Prado’s contract (with $28.5m remaining) runs for 2 more seasons. If he’s healthy, he would be worth that much – possibly more.
The theory is that Austin Riley will be ready to go as soon as 2019. But it’s still a bit of time between now and then, and he’s got to continue showing that he’s going to be major league ready. If he is, then Atlanta could deal with that, having only 2 years of Prado.
The Braves could suggest the following, then:
- Yelich and Prado to Atlanta, along with their contracts. That’s $20.5m to take on for 2018, $24.75m for 2019, then only Yelich’s remainder from there.
- Nick Markakis to Miami. The fish would need another outfielder, but as part of the enticement, the Braves would send $9 million of his remaining $10.5m deal. Gives Miami a solid veteran, clubhouse guy, and they only owe him $1.5m for the privilege of being in his presence.
- Braves would also send one of their better pitching prospects to Miami (perhaps someone around Muller or Toussaint), Rio Ruiz, and Cristian Pache.
The Marlins would save $19m that way, fill both major league holes, and then have a couple of nice prospects as well. Get’s their Opening Day projection down to about $102 million. Now if they could sell Edinson Volquez to somebody (maybe tied up with Justin Bour), their payroll goal would be met.
The Braves would then have an outfield of Yelich, Inciarte, and (probably) Ronald Acuna. They also increase their payroll by $30 million ($29.5m for the above changes, plus Acuna), but they would also more than make up for that in added talent on the field.
Final Thoughts
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I would go after Yelich rather than Ozuna simply because of the years of team control – 4 vs. 2. I would imagine that the same level of ‘package’ would be needed for either player.
I’m definitely not the first one to suggest such a deal, so feel free to claim credit if you like. But as I mapped out the full requirements that I *think* both sides would be good with, it just started to make more sense.
This is particularly true with the 3rd base market being as it is: many teams have needs and the more high-profile options have a lot of dollars attached to them. If Prado is healthy, this could be very good for Atlanta as a stop-gap… at least.
Next: Can we manage a little more patience?
As for the rest: if Atlanta could then find a taker for Matt Kemp on a near-half-price sale… so much the better. Add a starting pitcher and start making plans to go to Disney… in February.