Atlanta Braves: maybe now is the time to offer a Freeman extension

He just turned 28 years old. He’s one of the league’s leading hitters. The Braves are his team. Why not tack on a few more years?

Usually, teams will try to extend the contractual control of a player once in their career – near the end of their arbitration schedule. However, that rule of thumb changes for special players, and it might be worth considering this for the Atlanta Braves‘ first baseman.

Think of it this way: the Braves are positioning themselves for a multi-year playoff run. As of today, it looks like that run could begin in 2018, but more realistically we’re looking at 2019 and beyond.

What if… in the middle of that run… the Braves had to replace the biggest bat they currently have in the middle of the lineup?

Freddie Freeman‘s deal, in total, was an 8 year, $135 million pact that runs through the end of the 2021 season, when he will still be just 32 years old.

At this point, there is no other Atlanta Braves with a deal that’s longer, though Ender Inciarte‘s contract contains an option clause for 2022.

But let’s check a few other timelines:

Ozzie Albies – controlled through 2023
Ronald Acuna – (as estimated today) controlled through 2023 or 2024
Dansby Swanson – controlled through 2022
Luiz Gohara – through 2023
Sean Newcomb – through 2023
Max Fried – through 2023
All other up-and-coming prospects – probably through 2024.

I’m sensing a theme here. Wouldn’t you like to have the anchor of your roster guaranteed through 2024 as well?

I’m not suggesting something extending Freeman until he’s 40 or something silly like that… at least not yet. But the end of 2024 would take him to age 35, and that certainly seems reasonable at this point.

Around 2023 or so, both sides could then reassess where everything lies – whether the Braves are truly on a roll, whether Freeman is still a top performer, and the desires of each side to continue the relationship.

At this point, it is clear that Freeman can be counted on to be a producer, a defender, a ‘team guy’, and a leader – all of the things you look for in establishing a presence that you want to keep around for years.

Sure – it’s not unreasonable to wait. After all, I’m suggesting an extension that wouldn’t even really kick in for 4 more years.

But this is also suggested with 2017 dollars in mind.

What Would it Look Like?

Freeman already has life-changing money in hand. In 2018, he will make $21 million. That increases to $22 million in 2020 and 2021, the final year of the current deal. It’s the biggest contract in the history of the Atlanta Braves, but by market comparison it is still reasonable – and just barely a Top 30 commitment among all MLB players today.

I would propose a modification to his current contract to boost that last year of 2021, plus add on 3 new years, as follows:

2021: increase to $24 million
2022: $24 million
2023: $26 million
2024: $26 million

While that looks like $100 million, it’s really an increase above the current deal of $78 million. In total, that effectively brings his entire package to 11 years and $213 million.

In 2017, 6 players made $26 million or more:

Albert Pujols ($26m)
Felix Hernandez ($26.9m)
Justin Verlander and Miguel Cabrera ($28m)
David Price ($30m)
Clayton Kershaw ($33m)

Cabrera will hit $30m in 2018 with six more seasons still to go on that deal. Mike Trout is set to become the highest paid of all in 2018 at $34m, with Pujols “only” rising to $27m (his deal continues to rise – getting to $30m in 2021). J.D. Martinez could reach these levels as well.

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In another year, though, a whole new group will be breaking records. Manny Machado and Bryce Harper headline this free agent class that will probably see multiple players getting $30m or more annually.

So to the question of “why here and why now?”, my answer would be that if you want to keep premium talent, you have to pay for it. But once you recognize premium talent, you need to get out in front of the problem and commit early… otherwise you’ll lose the player.

That’s what will likely happen with the Orioles and the Nationals after 2018 and it’s entirely what that word ‘free’ in the term ‘free agent’ is all about.

Next: More reasons to despise the inevitable DH rule

So if you like your Freeman and don’t want him to be free to look elsewhere… even 4 years from now… you might consider going ahead with such an offer – at some point within the next full year or so. But I wouldn’t wait – the price is going up.

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