Atlanta Braves check: how the Marlins have done this off-season

The final of four posts to assess where the Braves’ NL East rivals are at this point of the off-season, this one being dedicated to the Miami Marlins.

In the history of the Florida/Miami Marlins, the Atlanta Braves have won 240 of the 414 meetings between the clubs. Honestly, there have been a number of years in which it didn’t feel so one-sided, and that advantage is only 110-94 in South Florida… while 50 games over .500 in Atlanta.

There’s a fair chance that the Braves can re-establish that domination in the coming years, and it is all because of the teardown in progress under their new ownership: thus far, there has been no move made whatsoever that will better their major league squad. None.

In all honesty, I held this NL East team review to the end in the hopes that we’d get another snippet of useful information to help us figure out the direction this club will be taking. But we may already know everything we need to know.

Burn it to the Ground

Okay, the approach being taken by Derek Jeter, Inc. is probably not quite that bad. But they have already done a lot of damage and now positioned themselves to … pretty much be in the position of having to finish the job.

The initial goal of the organization (term used loosely) was to dump payroll to roughly the $90-95 million level. They are now within shouting distance – yes, that’s the Marlins Man doing most of the shouting – of that target, as COTS puts their 2018 estimate at $96.8 million today.

So what now?

There are 2 ‘stars’ remaining on the club that are disgruntled: Christian Yelich and J.T. Realmuto. You could probably add several other names to the ‘disgruntled’ list, but few seem to care to ask around beyond those two.
If you figure on the general rule of thumb that a rebuild takes 5 years, then regardless of the public statements from management about keeping Yelich and Realmuto, the reality is that neither will be part of the after-build. Yelich’s contract runs through 2021. Realmuto is controlled through 2020. Both should be dealt.
Given that, the question becomes ‘how does that get done‘? Shedding payroll is not as important as when Stanton, Ozuna, and Gordon were in the mix, so their need will have to involve serious prospects, for that’s the motivation of a rebuild.
How far have they to go? Currently, the Marlins have zero prospects in baseball’s top 100. That includes recent draft picks and recent trades. MLBPipeline? BaseballAmerica? Nope. None. This is why I believe that ‘package’ deals for Yelich/Realmuto won’t fly. They desperately need a viable farm system… even more than they need the money.
This is why that 5 year rebuild schedule will take longer. They are starting from ground zero.

So – taking Martin Prado or Wei-Yin Chen to reduce the prospect price on a Yelich trade? Not gonna happen. They need premium prospects in the worst way.

And that’s part of the problem: the Marlins need exactly what (a) few teams have in ample supply, and (b) few teams wish to part with.

They simply cannot get equal value for Yelich or Realmuto. It isn’t available… or if it is, then teams will refuse to part with it.

A prime example: the Pirates seem to want Gleyber Torres from the Yankees for Gerrit Cole. Clint Frazier isn’t enough for their tastes. That’s not happening… even for 2 full years of Cole control.

The one place that the Fish should consider compromising on, though, is in terms of quantity. They need so much, that they should think about a 5-for-1 or 6-for-1 type of deal simply to get some better players in their system… with the hope that one of them actually ‘hits’.

But with all that as the soap opera behind the scenes, the reality is that they will most likely limp along for quite a while – and look like a Spring Training road team for much of the year. And the year after that.

UPDATE: This from the Miami Herald tonight…

"The Miami Marlins are listening to trade offers for Christian Yelich and catcher J.T. Realmuto, three sources told The Miami Herald over the past several days.Both players are unhappy with the team’s direction after the Marlins traded Giancarlo Stanton, Marcell Ozuna and Dee Gordon for prospects.One source said the team is not aggressively shopping the two players but is listening. Another source said the Marlins have told teams they are available for the right price. And the third source that the team is listening more closely on Yelich, and more seriously considering offers, than they had been.Meanwhile, MLB Network’s Jon Paul Morosi reported the Marlins “are engaged in active trade discussions with multiple teams regarding both Christian Yelich and J.T. Realmuto. Asking price on both players remains high; a trade is not imminent.”"

Miami Marlins

SIGNINGS:

RHP Alex Wimmers (minor league deal/spring invite)
SS Christhian Adames (minor league deal/spring invite)
LF Rafael Ortega (minor league deal/spring invite)

TRADES:

2B (and now CF) Dee Gordon to Seattle for RHP Nick Neidert, RHP Robert Dugger and SS Chris Torres. The ever-popular ‘Future Consideration’ also found his way to Seattle in this deal.
RF Giancarlo Stanton is a Yankee. 2B Starlin Castro, RHP Jose Guzman and SS Jose Devers came back
LF Marcell Ozuna is a Cardinal. The Marlins get LHP Daniel Castano, RF Magneuris Sierra, RHP Sandy Alcantara, and RHP Zac Gallen.
RHP Michael King and Future Considerations were both traded to the Yankees for LHP Caleb Smith and 1B Garrett Cooper.

DEPARTURES:

OTHER:

C Chad Wallach was claimed from the Reds off waivers
RHP Brett Graves claimed (Rule 5 draft)
Elieser Hernandez claimed (Rule 5 draft)

BOTTOM LINE

Yelich and Realmuto might have to wait for new teams. The Marlins have some time to decide now, and they could opt to slow-roll this if they don’t see a suitable offer.

But don’t be surprised if their numbers decline since this pair will hold the majority of the offensive threat remaining. Teams will start pitching around them.

Next: Pache-ing out Compliments

This has the potential to be historically bad in South Florida.

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