Atlanta Braves payroll estimate update

So how much damage did the Dodgers’ trade do to the Braves’ ability to spend this Winter?

With arbitration issues set to shortly take center stage, this is probably a good time to review the state of the Atlanta Braves‘ major league payroll… or at least our best guess at it.

I will wait until after Friday’s salary exchange deadline before posting my spreadsheet on this topic, but things got a bit more complicated when Alex Anthopoulos and the Dodgers got together on some Advanced Accounting.

My numbers differ from those on the COTS site of the Braves’ payroll information – but not by that much.  Here’s the basic differences:

• Their figures take into account the total Average Annual Value (AAV) of contracts including bonuses.  That’s for luxury tax computation purposes.  I do not use those figures.
• For some reason, they assume that the players with renewable contracts (pre-arbitration) will average $675K apiece.  The MLB-minimum for 2018 is $545,000.
• They assume $7.75 million for the 4 remaining Arbitration players (Vizcaino, Winkler, Sam Freeman, and Folty).  I think that number will come in higher.
• I always throw in another ML-minimum salary to account for a guy being on the disabled list to start the season… because there’s always somebody.

Additionally, I have omitted Adonis Garcia… even though he’s still actually on the team today.  We still don’t have closure on whether he’s actually going to Korea or not.

Either way, he will be at – or very near – to an MLB minimum contract, so whether it’s his name we use or that or another rookie… that really doesn’t matter for the purposes of putting a figure down.

UPDATE:  That finally happened today, 1/10/2018

The Updates

Gone is the money from the Dodgers or San Diego or … wherever… for Matt Kemp.  Gone is Adrian Gonzalez and his brilliant career with the Braves… though his $22 million salary lives on.  At least the Dodgers sent a $4.5 million check with Scott Kazmir and Brandon McCarthy.

Gone is R.A. Dickey, though a $500K option buyout is on the chart.

The rotation and bullpen… well, right now I’ve got 6 starters listed and just 7 in the bullpen, but again, unless new names are acquired, the rookies constitute interchangeable parts at the same salary level.

That sounds harsh, I admit, but my purposes here are to get a gauge on the payroll and not guess at the composition of the Opening Day roster.

Some here’s some numbers:

More from Tomahawk Take

• Braves News: Atlanta makes a pair of trades, prospect debuts, more
• Atlanta Braves History: How the Red Stockings became the Braves
• Braves News: Atlanta Braves acquire Eli White from the Texas Rangers
• Atlanta Braves Swing Trade with the New York Yankees for Lucas Luetge
• Atlanta Braves 2012 Top Prospects Review: Zeke Spruill

Adrian Gonzalez:  highest paid player at $22 million (Freddie Freeman is at $21m)

10 players under contract – including those with settled arbitration deals to date

I show $37.25 million of committed dollars for 2019, $30m for both 2020 and 2021.

If all things continue as currently in motion (they won’t), the Braves will have 13 arbitration-eligible players in 2021.

All this taken into account and assuming that nothing changes from here, I have the Braves’ estimated opening day payroll at $115.2 million.  COTS currently shows $116.8 million.

If I read it correctly, Atlanta – according to COTS – spent $133.4 million during 2017.  Given that – and the expectation of a bump in the payroll due to increased revenues – I would estimate that Atlanta could have something around $25 million more to spend, should they chose to spend.

Whether they do between now and the beginning of the year is probably dependent on a number of things – not the least of which being whether AA can pull off some kind of deal that would trigger thoughts of playoff contention.

Next: Before Trial, There's File

But for now we’ll just consider the arbitration date on Friday and check back in later.