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Atlanta Braves 2018: One PECTOA, Two PECOTA…

By Alan Carpenter

LEIPZIG, GERMANY - JANUARY 27: A participant sits at a computer monitor to play a video game at the 2018 DreamHack video gaming festival on January 27, 2018 in Leipzig, Germany. The three-day event brings together gaming enthusiasts mainly from German-speaking countries for events including eSports tournaments, cosplay contests and a LAN party with 1,500 participants. (Photo by Jens Schlueter/Getty Images)
LEIPZIG, GERMANY - JANUARY 27: A participant sits at a computer monitor to play a video game at the 2018 DreamHack video gaming festival on January 27, 2018 in Leipzig, Germany. The three-day event brings together gaming enthusiasts mainly from German-speaking countries for events including eSports tournaments, cosplay contests and a LAN party with 1,500 participants. (Photo by Jens Schlueter/Getty Images) /
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Baseball Prospectus has graced us with their forecast of the 2018 season.  Should we be happy?  Angry?  Should we care?

It’s a great guide to support serious fantasy baseball players, rotisserie players, and just fans who love getting deep into the game.  I won’t bury the lede here, though:  Baseball Prospectus pegs the Braves at 76 wins for 2018.

The number feels… probably about right… possibly a tad on the optimistic side, even.

The full run-down of team projection results is available to see here – with subscribers getting the player-by-player details.

Their NL East view has the Nationals as the only team above .500 for the year – yet “only” at 89 wins.  Seems there is concern with the depth of the Washington rotation… and further:  their bullpen.

But even after adding Jay Bruce and Todd Frazier, BP isn’t impressed with the Mets.  That’s fair:  until the members of their starting pitching staff can prove that can stay healthy and productive, they will continue to be a question mark.  There’s some addition holes around them as well.

If there’s a surprise in the NL East, it’s that the Marlins are not anticipated to lose 100 games.  To be sure, they are tied for the worst performance in baseball – with Kansas City – at 66 victories, but I suppose there is a belief in the computers that Prado/Bour/Realmuto will be enough to keep them out of the century club.  Wonder how this changes when Realmuto gets traded?

But the Braves

76 wins, 86 defeats, 705 runs scored (only 4 teams projected with fewer in the NL).  Runs against?  758 (tied for 4th most allowed in NL).  Team slash line of .254/.314/.392.

How does all of this compare to last year?

For 2017, PECOTA had the Braves at 77 wins.  The actual number came in at just 72, and that’s because of several factors:

  • Freeman’s injury
  • Ineffective starting pitching (notably Teheran’s early struggles at home, plus Bartolo Colon)
  • Pitching trades (Jaime Garcia)

The team offensive numbers went like this in 2017:

  • Runs scored: 732;  Runs allowed:  821
  • Slash line:  .263 / .326 / .412

So BP thinks the Braves will (a) pitch better, and (b) hit worse, resulting in a season with 5 more wins than 2017… or 1 win fewer than what they thought would happen, going into last season.

That’s probably about right – or at least we can hope for that on the pitching side.

On the mound, Atlanta needs to bank on Teheran doing better, Brandon McCarthy filling the ‘Jaime Garcia’ role, Mike Foltynewicz stepping up, and general improvement from the rest – along with an improved defense.

At the plate, the trouble will be in power… the Braves don’t really have any.  Do I expect better hitting than what’s forecast?  Yes.  Will that hitting result in more runs scored?  Not as likely, no.

Sure:  it would be nice if Atlanta can pull a Boston trick… the Red Sox scored 785 runs in 2017 (10th overall, yet were barely above Atlanta in homers).  But the Braves are starting from a weak position and will be weaker still – hence that .392 slugging projection, so it’s very hard to expect anything more.

We’ve wanted to see ‘the kids’ come up and make a contribution.  Well, that’s what we’re going to see.  Growing pains will be part of the process.  As I say, the numbers ‘feel’ about right… but there are other things that can happen, hence…

A bit of Optimism?

More from Tomahawk Take

The 2017 PECOTA summary does show some significant failures:

  • Milwaukee, 76 wins.  Actual:  86
  • Minnesota:  80 wins.  Actual:  85
  • New York Mets:  88 wins.  Actual:  70
  • Nationals:  87 wins:  Actual:  97 (A lot of those extras were taken from the Mets and Marlins)
  • Mariners:  87 wins.  Actual:  78.  I was roped in by them, too.

So all that to say that projections are mere guesses… it’s still up to the team on the field, their health, their depth, the field management, and even the Front Office to figure out how those players get used and who they are.

Next: MLB Presents: the Braves of the 1990's

I’m just finally happy that we’ll soon be talking about actual baseball.

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