Atlanta Braves and the recent history of non-homering teams
We don’t know how this will play out, of course, but projections suggestion that run manufacturing will be a serious need for Atlanta in 2018.
If you believe the Steamer projections, the Atlanta Braves will hit 130 home runs in 2018.
That’s a low number, but not historically low, by any means. Since the years 1982 through 1999, 54 different clubs had seasons of 100 or fewer homers… in 486 seasons. Starting in 2000, only 7 teams failed to exceed 100.
The 2015 Braves had exactly 100, the 7th least in the 540 team seasons since 2000.
In 2014 and 2016, Atlanta mustered 123 and 122 homers, respectively, making that sequence of years the lowest power numbers by all Braves’ teams this century.
In 2017, the additions of Matt Kemp, Matt Adams and Kurt Suzuki jumped the number to 165. But the departure of players either not on this year’s roster – or not expected to be – takes nearly 40% of 2017’s production away.
Maybe Freddie Freeman will have a full and highly productive season. Maybe the catchers will repeat their excellent work. Maybe Ronald Acuna will bust out with more than the projected 13.
Or maybe they and others may regress to put the team back near that 100 mark.
Homers aren’t everything, of course, but how bad might that be?
The Record
Here are the clubs with the 20 fewest homer seasons since 2000 – curiously all occurring in the past decade:
- 2011 Padres – 91 homers. 5th place (71-91).
- 2008 Giants – 94 homers. 4th place (72-90).
- 2014 Royals – 95. 2nd place (89-73); World Series runner-up.
- 2009 Mets – 95. 4th place (70-92).
- 2011 Astros – 95. 6th place (National Lg; 56-106).
- 2013 Marlins – 95. 5th place (62-100).
- 2015 Braves – 100. 4th place (67-95).
- 2010 Mariners – 101. 4th place (last; 61-101).
- 2007 Royals – 102. 5th place (69-93).
- 2012 Giants – 103. 1st place (94-68); World Series winner.
- 2011 Twins – 103. 5th place (63-99).
- 2014 Cardinals – 105. 1st place (90-72); NLCS runner-up.
- 2013 Giants – 107. 4th place (76-86).
- 2011 Pirates – 107. 4th place (72-90).
- 2011 Mets – 108. 4th place (77-85).
- 2010 Astros – 108. 4th place (76-86).
- 2010 Athletics – 109. 2nd place (81-81).
- 2014 Padres – 109. 3rd place (77-85)
- 2011 Mariners – 109. 4th place (last; 67-95).
- 2008 Twins – 111. 2nd place (88-75).
Of the 10 teams with the fewest dingers in 2017, the Rockies (10th) and Red Sox were the only club to make the playoffs (Boston 4th fewest overall – the Braves were third). The Angels (6th) were just out of the playoff picture, but the Red Sox fell short to the eventual World Series champions.
It’s all hypothetical, but this is to try and blunt the correlation that you might think exists between power and team results.
That’s 5 teams of those 20 (which constitute 3.7% of all seasons since 2000) that finished in either 1st or 2nd place while failing to provide power. 2 of those made it to the World Series.
Now of course, you’ll be able to point to many reasons for this happening among the successful teams on the list: elite hitting sans the power, elite pitching, etc. Also notably, many of the clubs shown above that failed did so for specific reasons, including tanking and making key trades to move key hitters.
The 2018 Braves are certainly not in the tanking group any longer: clearly, there’s more upside to this group than not.
That may not ultimately translate into success, but maybe it’s time for us (me?) to stop worrying about the homers and instead concentrate on the rest of their game. Those parts are not at all likely to be on the bottom rungs of the MLB ladder.