Atlanta Braves rotation pecking order is taking shape

The Braves do have a competition going for the last rotation spots, but the participants are limited to a “southpaws only” club.

On Thursday, the AJC’s David O’Brien conducted an insightful interview with Tyler Flowers, mostly about the young pitchers that the Atlanta Braves have competing for the chance to start this Spring.

As a reminder, the word going-in is that there were three rotation slots that were set in curing concrete and then two more up for grabs. So that’s…

…as the top 3. But this chat with Flowers tells us that there are now 3 major contenders for those 4^th and 5^th spots. All others can form in line behind those 3… probably including Scott Kazmir, who seems destined for the bullpen.

The Competitors

The one with the lead for the 4^th slot is Luiz Gohara. Behind him are Sean Newcomb and Max Fried… with no particular handicapping for the latter pair.

For Newcomb, the diagnosis is pretty straightforward – though not necessarily attainable: if he throws strike 1, then he’s in charge. If that first pitch is ball 1, then bad things can happen. Flowers indicated that there could even be a psychological aspect to first pitch, though:

"He knows it. He might know it too well, you know? That might be part of the battle, maybe knowing how critical it is, he’s trying too hard to place it in there or something? I don’t know."

What’s also interesting is the discussion (full read recommended if you can get past the paywall) about the three pitchers and their arsenals: all three can throw a strong fastball (graded at 60 to 70), but the other tools dictate their approach:

Gohara: solid slider
Newcomb: tremendous curve – especially when located well
Fried: excellent curve, plus a slider – which works well with his fastball being a tick (92.4) behind than the others (Gohara 96.3), Newcomb (93.7).

In handicapping this horse race, the immediately novel part is that the Braves look to have two lefties in the rotation – regardless of who gets tapped to start. That hasn’t happened in a while.

But beyond that, it could simply come down to Newcomb’s command. If it’s there, then he probably wins the spot. If not, Fried will… and he could take it anyway.

Recall that in the Arizona Fall League, Fried went nuts with a 11.1 K’s-per-9 rate vs. 2.8 walks-per-9. His WHIP was 0.885 and his ERA 1.73. In 26 major league innings, he held his own with a 3.81 ERA, so it wouldn’t be like he would be going to Atlanta all wide-eyed as a first-time call-up.

The Consolation Prize

More from Tomahawk Take

In all competitions, somebody’s going to lose. But none of this means that the “6^th guy” immediately becomes trade bait (though you also can’t rule that out).

As the Rays are learning (again) this morning, having a viable arm waiting by the phone with a “Go Bag” is a good idea. So while it will be disappointing for one of these pitchers by mid-March, it’s a great situation for the Braves… and a competition situation that’s likely to be repeated multiple times over the next few Springs.

Either way, it is fairly likely that both Fried and Newcomb get notable time on the mound with the big club this season.

Next: This guy should be a Braves' Hall of Famer

Newcomb will get the first assignment this Spring of the trio this weekend. He’s also the oldest – he’ll be 25 in June. Fried just turned 24 last month, and Brazilian native Gohara is barely over 21½ .

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