Atlanta Braves and third base: Riley or Donaldson?

This is a 2018 off-season kind of question, but people are already starting to talk about it. The Blue Jays are not going to re-sign Donaldson. The Braves kinda look like a fit… except…

This topic is why the Atlanta Braves will be giving long looks at Austin Riley this season. Already, just 5 games into the Spring, you could argue that there’s need for more thump in the lineup as the Braves have scored 3, 3, 2, 1, and 2 runs in Grapefruit League competition.

The Marlins put that many runs across just yesterday.

There’s some hope that Riley can provide that thump – and it would be really nice to have that ‘big bat’ presence again. But if winning is the emphasis (and it should always be), then just how many (thumpless) rookies can this club tolerate on their roster at any given time?

On the XM MLB channel, former Mets GM Steve Phillips has been repeating ‘watch out for the Braves’ regarding the pending free agency of Blue Jays’ all-star 3B Josh Donaldson.

Before you dismiss Phillips too quickly, just ask yourself why he would suggest this. There’s four easy reasons:

Alex Anthopoulos
The Braves need a third baseman
The Braves need a big bat
Braves Country (born in Pensacola, high school in Mobile, college at Auburn)

Of course, there’s 2 problems as well… maybe 4:

Contract length
Cost
Competition
Austin Riley

The Braves are going to have the money. That much is pretty certain. The only contractual commitments on the books after this season are for Freeman, Teheran, and Inciarte (other than Scott Kazmir‘s deferral due in 2021).

Speaking of 2021, if would be a good idea to get toward actually ‘winning’ while we know Freddie Freeman is still here and under contract. He might extend… but he also might not. This (the calendar) is why waiting on Riley to blossom into the next big thing might not be a good idea.

Now Phillips believes that it will require a 6-year deal to get Donaldson (which he thinks may seem like a bargain against the expected demands of Bryce Harper and Manny Machado). That time period itself might nix such a deal with Atlanta. Donaldson was a ‘late bloomer’, but he will be 33 years old next year… so a 6 year pact takes him through his age 38 season.

At the same time, let’s check his fWAR numbers from the last 5 seasons: 5.0 (2017), 7.6, 8.8, 6.6, 7.6. That’s 35.6. He’s averaging almost 35 homers a year.

Freeman over that same span? 23.1. It’s not even that close.

Life of Riley

So Austin Riley seemed to have a breakout year himself in 2017…20 homers at 2 levels, plus a handful more in the Arizona Fall League. Hit .315 in AA over 203 plate appearances.

But can he get to the majors and be good enough – quick enough – for the Braves’ purposes?

More from Tomahawk Take

That’s why he’s a player to watch as he heads (likely) to AAA this year. I can see 2 scenarios:

ONE: The Blue Jays, with their collection of stop-gap veterans, stumble out of the gate and are mired in 3rd place – well behind Boston and New York, with both of those rivals soaring. With Marcus Stroman already experiencing shoulder inflammation, that scenario is not terribly unlikely. Meanwhile Riley starts well, but is streaky at AAA.
TWO: Riley tears up AAA and makes the Braves think ‘Josh who?’ (they probably already do, but for altogether different reasons involving coffee mugs and podcasts).

In the latter scenario, pencil in Riley for third base in 2019.

In the former, the Braves send Riley to Toronto (with more) at the trade deadline and get Donaldson… then immediately throw money at him. Something above $150 million.

Frankly, I’m not at all certain which scenario I’d like better… unless I knew the outcome in advance.

Next: Trending? Not yet.

That GM chair has got to be really uncomfortable at times.

Home/Braves News