Atlanta Braves and Ronald Acuna, Jr.: do Braves put their money where their hype is?

The Braves are probably – almost certainly – going to hold Acuna in AAA for 2 full weeks of the regular season. But what are the alternatives?

The Atlanta Braves have a short history of offering contract extensions to their younger players – in fact, there is just one example of any such deal prior to the beginning of the arbitration process.

I bring this up because there’s one way that the Braves can completely eliminate this discussion of service time and arbitration clock and such with Ronald Acuna: see if he’s willing to do an early cash-in and get him under contract sooner than later.

Before I get into what that might look like, let’s go ahead and mention the obvious objections to such a scheme… there are a lot of them:

He’s proven nothing to deserve special treatment. No major league service time to show his talent: absolutely true. Proven nothing? I’d beg to differ on that point. Just this Spring, he’s 3rd in the majors in OPS among ‘qualified’ hitters, 12th in homers, 17th in RBI, 14th in steals, 2nd in OBP, 1st in hits… and he’s not getting all of this off of AAA pitching. Never mind that he’s convinced the people that matter most – his own teammates, plus coaches, scouts, and former players that he’s the real thing, and therefore prime candidate to be considered.
He could reject the offer. Also clearly true. Negotiation could be part of the deal; a desire to bank on himself could be part of the deal. Also: this need not be settled in 2018. The Braves could go ahead and promote him immediately with the intention of making an offer in 2020 or so. But without at least some serious conversation about that, a 2½ week delay makes the most sense.
He could be a bust. Ah, that’s the gotcha with any long-term deal… and I’ll have a couple of examples about what that looks like coming up.
Why bother? It’s not like the Braves are competitive yet anyway. Whether that’s ultimately true or not isn’t the point. Anything signed now – or even within the next year or so – would be done on a more-team-friendly basis. In 3 years, if Acuna busts out like a Bruce Harper, then such a conversation begins with a lot more digits involved – and an increasing likelihood that the Braves can’t retain his services beyond the allotted 6 or 7 seasons. So such an offer like to buying insurance… except that in this case, it’s a policy to protect the Braves in case he’s really, really good at baseball.

Precedents

There are numerous examples of teams trying to seize opportunities and lock up a potential star player early. Let’s look at some examples – most of which happened just prior to the start of the arbitration process:

Jon Singleton/Astros, 2014. Thus far, he’s the only player to have signed an extension before reaching the major leagues. While he would qualify as a ‘bust’ by these standards, the contract actually wasn’t terrible – even for the team: $10 million over 5 years, with 3 team options thereafter (which would have included 2 free agent years). Spread out over this kind of time, that’s certainly not going to break their bank.
Andrelton Simmons/Braves, 2014: 7 years, $58 million. The only example of Atlanta signing a truly ‘pre-arbitration’ player. This also bought out 2 free agent seasons, which will now be paid out at rates of $13m and $15m by Los Angeles. This was an excellent deal for the Braves while it lasted. Now that he’s hitting, it’s likewise a great deal for the Angels.

Observation: Given current monetary concerns now evident for the Braves, one might now wonder whether the trade sending Simmons out West may have been motivated as an early salary dump (he gets $11 million this season) given pending debt-servicing issues. Probably not… but I can’t ignore that thought.

George Springer/Astros, 2013: 7 years, $23m (rejected). Springer chose to bet on himself by rejecting this early offer (before he hit the majors) – which was better deal than the one that Singleton signed a year later. That choice has clearly paid off, as he recently signed up for $12 million each year for 2018-2019 alone… on top of a $3.9 million payday for 2017.
Julio Teheran/Braves, 2014: 6 years, $32.4 million (2020 team option). This was said to more-or-less ‘assume’ a lost year due to injury, but to this point, nothing major has sidelined the Braves’ #1. Nice deal for the Braves.
Ryan Braun/Brewers, 2008: 8 years, $45 million. Includes the fashionable 2 years of free agency buyout. He has since extended that deal, of course.
Freddie Freeman/Braves, 2014: 8 years, $135 million just as the sides were also preparing for an arbitration hearing. Jason Heyward was said to have been offered the same deal; he didn’t take it (got 2 years, $13.3m the same day).
Brian McCann/Braves, 2007. 6 years, $27.8 million with options and escalators (the options were picked up). “Most money [then] ever included in a contract extension given to a player with less than two years of service”… and the first time for the Braves. Despite this, Jeff Francoeur was said to have been offered that deal as well. We know how that turned out.
Many other examples (and the records) can be seen here.

Target Dates

If Ronald Acuna were to begin this season in the majors, his first 2 free agent seasons would come in 2024 and 2025…. his age 26 and 27 seasons. Hold him back 2½ weeks and that changes to 2025-26/ages 27 and 28.

Yes – he still wouldn’t be 30 years old at that point(!).

Every year that Atlanta waits before making a long-term offer changes the dynamics: the price will go up if he’s hitting like everyone seems to believe he will; maybe they don’t even make an offer otherwise. This is all part of the risk equation.

More from Tomahawk Take

I am not going to pretend to throw numbers out to suggest what the Braves and Acuna might want to do here. The notion that he really could be a perennial All-Star is definitely part of my thinking here, but the risk is great from both sides. Thus we’re in uncharted territory here.

Without a deal, the Braves could limit Acuna to ‘minimum wage’ ($545,000) in 2018 with modest raises in 2019-2020 before things kick into gear.

I could see some creativity – not unlike what the Astros did for Singleton with multiple (3) option years on the back end. That would be important to protect the team.

While Acuna might start at something close to Singleton’s numbers, I have no doubt that the back end would need to be significantly higher – probably in record territory – to entice a deal at this stage.

Have the Braves even had this kind of discussion? I would think them foolish to have not done so. Part of the discussion would undoubtedly include the timing… when to make an offer. Would love to be a fly on the wall for that conversation.

Such things have been done. Rarely so, but it does happen.

Next: Projecting Acuna

But what a message it would send if – and when – the Braves do so.

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