Atlanta Braves Daily Chop: The pre-season mood of the fans

Just as the season was about to get underway, we posed our annual survey to see how optimistic Braves fans might be. It’s time to check the results.

The majority of responses came in before the Atlanta Braves jumped out to that nice start to the season, but let’s see what y’all thought.

Team Questions

Some of these didn’t work very well – Google Forms balked or something (looks like some of the entry was corrupted, so we’ll have to piece together the responses to the questions that worked.

Unfortunately, one of the questions that was lost was the big one: how many wins do you expect that this team will get in 2018?

I am still holding with 77 right now, though fangraphs.com suggested today that the Braves’ start is worth an extra 2+ wins for the season. Whether that ends up being the case is to be determined, but obviously winning is better than not.

How many players on the Braves Opening Day roster will not be with the organization (at all) on September 1st?

Well, there’s none yet, but Catcher Chris Stewart was DFA’s and is currently a member of the Gwinnett Stripers. For the record, this was the O.D. roster (counting DL guys):

INF: Freeman, Albies, Swanson, Flaherty, Culberson, Camargo (DL)
C: Flowers, Suzuki, Stewart
OF: Tucker, Inciarte, Markakis, Bourjos, Adams
SP: Teheran, Foltynewicz, McCarthy, Newcomb, Gohara (DL)
RP: Vizcaino, Minter, Moylan, Brothers, Freeman, Ramirez, Winkler, Carle, Lindgren (DL60), Whitley (DL)

Defense improvement was a key goal for this year. How many errors will the team commit in 2018 (97 in 2017; MLB range was 73 to 121)?

Most of you thought the Braves would be a little better – in the 81-90 range. That would be a nice improvement. As of this writing – through the Tuesday evening game vs. the Nationals – the Braves stand at 8 errors… which is fairly high through 11 games (on pace for 118). However, there’s lots of time to get that improved.

Hitter Questions

How many home runs will the Braves hit in 2018 (165 last season; MLB range was 128 to 241)?

A good range of responses, though the centroid of answers seemed to be focuses on the range of 141-160. Despite the early success, this feels perhaps about right… maybe on the low end of that range.

What will be the team on-base percentage for 2018 (was .326 in 2017; NL ranged from .299 to .338)?

Through Monday night’s contest, this sat at a fairly robust .344. Playing the Nationals and facing Scherzer and Strasburg hasn’t helped this, but it’s still part of the ebb and flow of a season: some nights you’ll get mediocre opposition pitching; other nights you’ll face a Cy Young award winner.

Most of you thought that something in the .320-.330 range (that encompassed 2 answers) would end up being about right for 2018.

How many runs will the Braves score in 2018 (732 last season; NL ranged from 604 to 824)?

Our readers were a bit more optimistic here: something slightly higher than 2017: 734 to 766. So far, so good as the bottom of the order has been producing well.

Team strikeout rate… higher or lower (was MLB-best 19.0% in 2017; NL range 19.0% to 25.6%)?

When you’re the best, it’s hard to improve. Most suggested a modest increase of something between 19 and 20%. Currently, that sits at 18.9%… before folding in Tuesday night’s game.

Number of games played: Albies, Inciarte, and Freeman combined?

In other words: will these key players stay healthy? These answers were all over the map, though it looks like the average response sits in the range of 431-449 games, or roughly 144-150 games each.

Pitcher Questions

Number of starters with double-digit wins (3 in 2017)?

Optimism reigns here: many seem to have had trouble deciding between 3 and 4… which would be a good thing to see.

Relievers ERA (was 4.58 in 2017; 5th worst – MLB range was 2.89 to 5.63):

Lots of indecision here… a big spread on the answers, typically between 3.75 and up to 4.50. So far, it’s been pretty good – and a big help to the starting pitchers.

In fact: the Braves’ relief corps has thrown to a 1.33 ERA so far – 3rd best in all of baseball, behind the Cubs (the next opponent) and Mets.

Starting pitchers strikeout-to-walk ratio (was 2.11 in 2017; majors’ range was 1.74 to 4.15; highest numbers mean fewer BB’s):

More from Tomahawk Take

This was tricky, but the essence of the question was this: are the Braves going to limit the damage of walks this season? Many of you thought “no – not much difference” with a smattering guessing that this ratio might go a bit higher.

So far, despite the early successes, the walk rate from the relievers is actually the worst in baseball. Much of that can be laid on Rex Brothers and Peter Moylan, though Luke Jackson and Vizcaino have also had their moments. Julio Teheran‘s starts haven’t exactly been walk-free either.

The starters are faring a bit better, but there’s still definite room for improvement.

How many starting pitchers will the Braves use in 2018 (11 in 2017):

Most of you — and yours truly, for that matter — are hoping for something in the 9-10 range. That would be a good sign if it happens, for that means that some pitching durability and consistency has broken out.

Number of combined innings in 2018: Teheran, Folty, Newcomb:

Consistent with that last question, most are hoping for the 450 to 500 inning result, with many of the remaining answers coming just below this point at 400-450.

Next: This might really get you going

Generally speaking… there is some early optimism… not just on the scoreboard, but in the fan hopes as well. We’ll follow along (of course) to see how these things progress.

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