Atlanta Braves: can they sustain this? Bullpen edition

While the Red Sox, Mets, Diamondbacks – and even the Phillies – are geting most of the attention, Atlanta is exceeding expectations. Can their bullpen live up to this kind of standard?

At 12-8, the Atlanta Braves are now on pace for a 97 win season. Let that sink in for a second. The rear-view mirror includes 2 sets against the Nationals and one each vs. the Cubs and Mets. It’s also somewhat noteworthy – schedule aside – that the Phillies are 12-3 when they don’t play Atlanta.

But there is a weak link. It’s not even a subtle one – more like a game of Russian Roulette that has thus far allowed the Braves to survive more often than not.

In answer this question of sustainability, we usually want to highlight something unusually good that’s going on and then ask whether the player or team can keep it going.

In this case, it’s the opposite: we’re wondering if the bullpen can get any worse… and hoping that the answer is “no”.

Playing With Fire

What I’m having trouble understanding about the Braves relievers is how they have – for the most part – been getting away with walking the house. As a group, they are 30th – dead last – in walk rate.

In fact, it’s not even close:

Braves bullpen: 6.66 walks per 9 innings
Royals: 5.34
Reds: 5.14
White Sox 4.83
Mets: 4.71
Cardinals: 4.52
Cubs: 4.44

At the same time, the relief corps is 13th in ERA at 3.51. Let’s take those same teams listed above and add their ERA ranks and we’ll see just how odd the Braves’ numbers are:

Braves bullpen: 6.66 walks per 9 innings [13th in ERA]
Royals: 5.34 BB/9 [30th]
Reds: 5.14 [24th]
White Sox 4.83 [26th]
Mets: 4.71 [12th]
Cardinals: 4.52 [14th]
Cubs: 4.44 [4th]

Only the Mets and Cubs are doing better than Atlanta in bullpen ERA. The Cubs’ walk total could be blamed in part on the weather… and the Braves’ inability to capitalize against them in their series.

On Saturday night, the problem of late walks was illustrated well – by the Mets. 3 walks by their relievers in the last 2 innings, and all three of them scored as part of the 4-run rally. This is the fate that awaits Atlanta if they can’t get that problem squared away.

You Have 1 Job…

Here we are on April 22nd and the Braves are clearly trying to find some answers as they’ve already used 14 – fourteen – different relief pitchers in the season’s first 20 games.

Some didn’t last very long: Rex Brothers was gone after just one game (and he hasn’t been any better at Gwinnett, either). Luke Jackson got 2 appearances.

Jose Ramirez may or may not be a special case, but he’s now on the shelf indefinitely.

Lucas Sims? Faced 6 batters, got 1 out, and walked 3 of them. Back to Gwinnett the next day.

There’s one other pitcher with a walk rate above 1-per-inning. That’s Peter Moylan. He’s been used sparingly since the 6th, which may be helping: just 5 appearances between then and now, but 2 walks over that stretch. It’s also a fair question to ask whether Atlanta can afford to use him that sparingly…if that’s indeed a solution.

Jesse Biddle was brought in because he had walked almost no one at Gwinnett… but did give a free pass in his major league debut – I can likewise give him a free pass for that.

But Sam Freeman, Arodys Vizcaino, and A.J. Minter have all had battles with the ‘yips’ at times – each has walk rates at or above 6. So does Josh Ravin (6.00), but he was the latest roster shuffle victim.

Here’s where I should applaud the good guys:

Dan Winkler: almost 14K per 9 strikeout rate, 3.48 on the walk rate in 10.1 innings.
Shane Carle: 2.40 walk rate in 15 innings.
Miguel Socolovich: 2 innings so far, no walks.

The Good News?

What is sustaining these ‘walkers’ is the fact that hitters aren’t hitting them. Only Sims (.667), Moylan (.375) and Ramirez (.321) have given up a Batting Average Against above .210.

Yes – 11 of those 14 pitchers are shutting down bats… which is why the walk rates are so tough to stomach.

Now maybe – if more balls were in the strike zone – the opponents would be swinging more and getting more hits. Sure – that’s probably true. But that’s still likely to mean a BAA of .300 or less, which should in turn make for fewer base runners overall.

Here’s another stat: The Braves’ bullpen has the majors’ lowest home runs and home run rate allowed.

Braves: 0.23 per 9 innings
Red Sox: 0.36
Diamondbacks: 0.39
Padres: 0.50
Tigers: 0.50

That’s exactly 2 homers. The A’s and Marlins have yielded 14 already. But that may also be correlated to the prior thoughts about BAA.

Just Do It

The offense is making hay by being aggressive. The bullpen should do likewise. Even if a few more hits – or even homers – are the result, I’d like to see that more than the free passes.

Hopefully, the end-of-the-game-gang can start trusting their defense a bit more (they are third in the majors in double plays turns with 62) and starting pounding the strike zone more.

The message is clearly being sent – pitchers that walk batters are not the friends of this coaching staff and that will get you sent out quickly if there’s any perception that you can’t control your pitches.

That’s a good thing… except that somebody has to start throwing strikes.

Next: A chat with Ian Anderson

There does appear to be some recent improvements… though 3 relievers combined for 3 walks over 2 innings in Saturday’s contest. But let’s hope the general trend continues, for the practice of lighting your own dumpster fire is certainly a practice we don’t wish to sustain.

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