Atlanta Braves are enjoying a Julio Teheran turn-around

Don’t look now, but while be may not be an ‘ace’, Julio Teheran has started pitching like one after a slow start.

You may be the most stubborn curmudgeon out there about the Atlanta Braves‘ season thus far, but even you still have to be impressed with the job Julio Teheran has been doing to right his ship after a shaky start.

Since we know that his recent start at Philadelphia was an aberration (the sore trapezius game), we’ll throw that out and look at the progression for the season without that included.

Game Scores:

43 (Opening Day)
3
57
58
76
78
73 (May 9th vs. Rays)

Game ERA

6.35
19.29
3.00
1.50
0.00
0.00
0.00

Game Walks, Strikeouts, and Hits

3, 3, 4
3, 2, 6
4, 7, 2
3, 9, 5
1, 6, 4
2, 6, 2
0, 7, 4

(Mostly note the reduction in walks)

In his last 5 starts – again, ignoring the Philadelphia stint – 3 runs over 32 innings. That’s an ERA of 0.84.

Everything is working for Teheran now:

Balls are staying in the park despite fly ball rates being up (45%)
Line drive percentages are down (career low 18%).
Overall ERA of 3.14 is his lowest since 2014.

Just in Case

If you really want to be that cynic, then there are a few stats you can point to… if you’d like to ignore the actual results, of course:

More from Tomahawk Take

fastball velocity is down close to 2 mph (though the Philly game was noticeable, it’s been fairly consistent).
BABIP (Batting average on balls in play) is at a career low .241. While some would call that ‘lucky’, I will suggest that it stems from better pitching (and indeed, opponents are hitting .205 overall against him).
Walks are actually slightly up overall – but as noted, have been trending in the right direction.

The other thing that could be contributing to this renewal is the fact that nobody really wants to see starting pitchers extended into the 7th inning or beyond now.

The analytics would suggest that such is the dividing line between ‘starter effectiveness’ and ‘bullpen effectiveness’… or so the story goes. Personally, I would always like to see starters go roughly one more inning per game on average, but if this scheme keeps them going stronger through the Summer and early Fall, then perhaps it’s worth it… if the bullpen is up to the task, of course.

Bulldog Approach

Teheran’s body language has also been strong – like there’s a renewed stubborn streak that refuses to give in.

That observation is hard to quantify, but his ‘pace’ rating is down this season to one of the lowest rates-of-pitching he’s recorded over his career – 23.4 seconds (lowest since 2015), which could be some indicator of renewed confidence.

Next: Rent Manny Machado??

Accordingly, all of this is paying dividends: Teheran is consistently painting corners and keeping hitters off-stride. Whether this is from counsel from Anibal Sanchez or Chuck Hernandez or… somewhere else: it’s clearly working.

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