Atlanta Braves bullpen woes

The Atlanta Braves had bullpen issues top to bottom early in the season. Over time they’ve improved but there are still issues.

After a three-week shakedown cruise the Atlanta Braves bullpen – or at east the back half of the Atlanta Braves bullpen – settled into their roles.  Relief pitchers are the disposable contact lens of a baseball team. They’re used everyday, often without proper rest and eventually they get worn out and must be replaced.

Somehow fans don’t comprehend that relievers are pitchers not good enough to start. Their best use is throwing an inning or two every other day or so if managed well.  The general opinion seems to be  that these guys should  be capable of going out three days in a row and pitching like they’re fresh as a daisy.

If you watch the Atlanta Braves play and are on Twitter at the same time, you’ve heard the complaints. The bullpen is trash. We can’t depend on anyone.

To be fair, fans have a point, at times the pen looks really bad.  They aren’t bad every day nor are they all awful, at least half of the pen’s arms are pretty darn good.

A nod’s not as good as a Winkler

In case you haven’t noticed, Dan Winkler is a beast. Fangraphs lists 187 qualified relief pitchers. Going into play on May 31, Winkler’s ranks are:

• ERA 0.81 – Second behind Jeremy Jeffress’ 0.62 and just ahead of Kelvin Herrera’s 0.83.
• WHIP.0.72 – Fourth behind Sean Doolittle (0.63), Adam Ottavino (0.64) and Josh Hader (0.67.)
• K% 38.1% –  Seventh Aroldis Chapman, Dellin Betances and Edwin Diaz join Doolittle, Ottavino and Hader ahead of Dan.
• SIERA 2.00 – Eighth, ahead of Craig Kimbrel, Bud Norris and Aroldis Chapman

Even if you hit a Winkler pitch, odds are you won’t hit it hard. His 13.6% hard hit ball rate is baseball’s best among qualified relievers.

Come back Shane and bring Sam and Jesse

Shane Carle may be the best find of the winter. He’s struggled his last three times out but his 2.10 ERA is 43rd on that list and his 1.13 WHIP puts him in a tie for 66th on the list.

Sam Freeman gets take a lot of flack of late and back-to-back three run outings without getting an out make his line look worse than he’s been.

Before those two outings Freeman posted a 0.96 ERA, 1.11 WHIP  in 9.1 innings. Since the second bad outing, he’s made 14 appearances throwing 12 2/3 innings with a 1.42 ERA, 0.95 WHIP and striking out 11.3 per nine.  Freeman still walks way too many and remains a lucky pitcher, but overall the results are good.

Jessie Biddle owns the worst ERA of this trio due to two outings where he gave up two runs and two more with one run each.  That happens when his sinker doesn’t sink.

When it does sink as in the other twelve outings and opponents beat it into the ground. Overall he has a 58.7% ground ball rate – the best on the team – and he strikes out 8.5 per nine.

Moral of this story; reliever numbers swing wildly based on small sample size. Biddle will get better, Carle will bounce back and Braves hope Sam stays lucky.

Long men come up short

Two pitchers used in multiple innings situations most often– Peter Moylan (for some reason) and Lucas Sims – are struggling.

I had hoped that moving Sims to the bullpen would make his stuff play up. That has not been the case so far. Bouncing back and forth between Gwinnett and Atlanta hasn’t helped, but he has to overcome that hurdle if he want to stay.

Batters love to face Sims and 48.3% of the time they hard contact. That;s result in a .243/.378/.459/.837 line with two homes in his 9 1/3 IP. That breaks down to a 6.75 ERA, 1.72 WHIP; that’s unacceptable.

Moylan’s job should be to get ground balls when a double play is needed. He does get grounders (62.2% RHH, 35.7% LHH) giving him a 54.9% overall GB rate,second highest on the team.

Petey strikes out 8.8 per nine but walks 6.38 per nine and he has virtually no L/R split in the worst way:LHH 316/.500/.316/.816, .365 wOBA / RHH .314/.404/.380/.784, .351 wOBA. Only six of those became double plays as witnessed by hitters .423 BAbip.

While his ERA (2.95) looks good – 84th on the list – SIERA (4.40) and Baseball Prospectus’ DRA (4.60) suggest he’s been extremely lucky.

Some (a lot?) of Moylan’s woes are related to the way he’s used but he’s not been good even in his niche.