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Atlanta Braves: is the baseball attendance bug hitting home?

By Alan Carpenter

CINCINNATI, OH - MAY 06: Brad Ziegler #29 of the Miami Marlins pitches in the ninth inning against the Cincinnati Reds at Great American Ball Park on May 6, 2018 in Cincinnati, Ohio. The Marlins won 8-5. (Photo by Joe Robbins/Getty Images)
CINCINNATI, OH - MAY 06: Brad Ziegler #29 of the Miami Marlins pitches in the ninth inning against the Cincinnati Reds at Great American Ball Park on May 6, 2018 in Cincinnati, Ohio. The Marlins won 8-5. (Photo by Joe Robbins/Getty Images) /
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We’re past the early weather issues, so maybe we can now take an honest look at the numbers of fans in the stands around baseball.  Hint:  there are concerns.

Despite last night’s stumble, the Atlanta Braves are still in first place and still hold the second-best record (by wins) in the National League.  At the same time, they are also one year removed from their new, shiny thing called SunTrust Park… located where it sits because that’s closer to home for a majority of their ticket-buyers.

So how’s that working so far?

This topic has been on my mind for a while.  I was at the Opening Day game.  That’s usually a maximum gate for teams.  So my first thought that day was…. hmmmm – where is everybody?

Officially, the attendance was announced as 40,208.  As you can see, there’s clearly not 40,208 people in the stands of this 41,084-seat-capacity venue.  So that number was based on ticket sales and not turnstile counts… which is not an uncommon practice around the league.

But it’s more than just that.  In a piece entitled ‘MLB Attendance Drops to Lowest Average in 15 Years”, Carson Kessler wrote this for Fortune magazine yesterday:

"MLB attendance has dropped to its lowest average in 15 years, down 6.6% from this time last year and 8.6% overall, according to Stats LLC. The league could see its first season since 2003 with average attendance below 30,000.While there are no statistics readily available on how much this drop is actually costing the league, a quick calculation — based on annual league-wide attendance rates, the 2,430 games played each season, and an average price of $76 per ticket — estimates a loss of nearly $355 million on ticket sales alone."

Running the Numbers

A quick check shows where the big problems lie – the usual suspects are there, but there’s more:

  • Miami (10,267 average)
  • Tampa Bay (13,413)
  • Oakland (15,253)

Here are some new problem areas among the next-lowest attended parks:

  • White Sox (16,916)
  • Pittsburgh (16,930)
  • Cincinnati (18,745)
  • Cleveland (20,131 – and they’re in 1st place!)
  • Kansas City (20,433)
  • Baltimore (20,503)
  • Detroit (21,708)

How bad are those numbers?  Compare each of those cities with their 2017 levels:

  • Miami (20,395… down by nearly 50%)
  • Tampa Bay (down by ~2,200)
  • Oakland (down by ~3,200)
  • White Sox (~3,700)
  • Pittsburgh (~6,700!)
  • Cincinnati (~3,900)
  • Cleveland (~5,100)
  • Kansas City (~7,300)
  • Baltimore (~4,500)
  • Detroit (~6,900)

So how are the Braves doing?  Well, if you ignore the visual evidence as noted above, the answer is “not bad”:

  • SunTrust Park 2017:  30,929
  • SunTrust Park 2018 to date:  31,054

It’s a slight increase, but given the newness from last year, it’s good to see an increase at all.  The Braves may benefit a bit from having fewer home games while the school year was still going, but all other things being as equal as can be, an increase is better than the alternative.

The “Why?”

Well the next question has to be this:  how are the ‘winning’ teams doing?  We already know that Atlanta has a slight bump and that numbers in Detroit and Cleveland have tanked, but what of the others currently in 1st or 2nd places?

  • Yankees (UP ~3,100)
  • Boston (DOWN ~1,500)
  • Arizona (DOWN ~400)
  • Dodgers (DOWN ~500)
  • Angles (DOWN ~200)
  • Milwaukee (UP ~2,350)
  • Cubs (DOWN ~1,600)
  • Washington (DOWN ~1,000)
  • Houston (UP  ~5,650)
  • Seattle (DOWN ~1,400)

Accordingly, here are the attendance rankings (for average per game) for teams in 1st or 2nd place:  1,4,6, 9,10,11,13*,15,16,19,20,22.  Average position:  12.1

… and for those in 4th or 5th:  3 (Giants),5,12,14,17,18,23,25,26,27,28,29.  Average position: 18.9.

* – the Braves are 13th overall.

Meaningful Data

More from Tomahawk Take

There are venues in which the fans simply buy tickets almost out of civic obligation/pride, habit, or some sense of connection.  That happens in San Francisco, St. Louis, the North side of Chicago, and in Boston.  All of these parks are routinely filled to a 95%+ capacity (which is truly remarkable), and thus even annual fluctuations of numbers mean little.

But for the rest of baseball, there are certainly enough empty seats to care about.

It seems reasonable to believe that there’s a strong correlation between winning and attendance.  If so, the Braves should enjoy at least a consistent level of ticket-buying for the next several years.

For the tanking clubs, though… these numbers should not surprise anyone.  It’s yet another factor that franchises will have to consider when they opt to play that ‘rebuilding’ card.

Next: Sign Up Now!

Right now, there are 5 teams on a pace to lose 100 times in 2018, with 1 more (Miami) on the cusp).  The costs of losing certainly will impact the bottom line for multiple years – it is in the interest of each team to find any way possible to shorten that window.

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