Atlanta Braves and starting pitching candidates for July trade season

Whether the Braves choose to dive deep into the trade market is an open question, but if they do, here’s what the pitchers will require on the financial end.

With the Atlanta Braves sitting at 43-30 on the season (pending tonight’s action), their season is now 45% complete. This percentage isn’t exact, but it’s a decent approximation for pro-rating salaries of players they might be interested in trading for.

This post will focus on the starting pitching market, which admittedly might have some additional meaning now that Mike Soroka is back on the shelf for a while.

So using the trade rankings from the MLB Trade Rumors site as a guide, let’s take a look at the cash cost of starting pitchers this Summer:

Rank 3. J.A. Happ, Blue Jays (34-40). LHP.

The Braves just got a first-hand look at Happ, who got the win while giving up a pair of solo homers.

AGE: 35-3/4
CONTRACT: 3 years, $36 million; $13 million paid in 2018.
STILL DUE IN 2018: $7.15 million
TRADE TYPE: Rental (free agent after the end of the 2018 season)
KEY STATS: 3.56 ERA, 1.033 WHIP, 91 innings, 4:1 K/BB ratio
CHANCE OF BEING TRADED: 95%

Rank 4. Cole Hamels, Rangers (32-44). LHP.

AGE: 34½
CONTRACT: 7 years, $159 million; $23.5m in 2018; team option ($20m/$6m buyout) for 2019. Also has a vesting clause for 2019, but that will not trigger.
STILL DUE IN 2018: $11.5 million (Phillies paid $2.5m of salary this season) + the contract buyout should acquiring team choose not to exercise option
TRADE TYPE: Rental or Controllable. Given the size of the buyout, teams likely would be buying 2019 as well.
KEY STATS: 3.41 ERA, 1.235 WHIP, 92+ innings, 2.6:1 K/BB ratio
CHANCE OF BEING TRADED: 85% (lower due to cost)

Rank 7. Tyson Ross, Padres (34-43). RHP.

AGE: 31
CONTRACT: 1 year, $1.75m
STILL DUE IN 2018: $960,000
TRADE TYPE: Rental.
KEY STATS: 3.34 ERA, 1.180 WHIP, 89 innings, 2.7:1 K/BB ratio
CHANCE OF BEING TRADED: 90% or more. Depends less on Padres’ record at this point and more on the Padres’ price in prospects since he’s well out-pitching his price.
OF NOTE: though he appears to be fully healthy now, 2018 already represents the most innings he’s thrown since 2015 (196 innings in 2014 and 2015).

Rank 27. Matt Harvey, Reds. RHP.

I’ll just move on. And honestly, I can’t see the Braves taking any of the next-ranked pitchers listed by MLBTR: Bartolo Colon, Doug Fister, or Mike Fiers.

But let’s add a couple of others for the sake of completion:

43. Dan Straily, Marlins (29-46). RHP.

AGE: 34
CONTRACT: 1 years, $3.38 million
STILL DUE IN 2018: $1.86 million
TRADE TYPE: Rental.
KEY STATS: 4.89 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, 46 innings, 1.6:1 K/BB ratio
CHANCE OF BEING TRADED: 50% or less.

It’s fairly evident that there is a huge drop-off from the top tier to here. I set that trade odds even this high simply because some team might need to fill an injury hole on the cheap… but there is at least one choice that’s more attractive in this group.

44. Clayton Richard, Padres (34-43). RHP.

AGE: 35 in mid-September
CONTRACT: 2 years, $6 million
STILL DUE IN 2018: $1.65 million
TRADE TYPE: Controllable through 2019.
KEY STATS: 4.31 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 94 innings, 2.39:1 K/BB ratio
CHANCE OF BEING TRADED: Better than Straily. Maybe 60%.

45. Jordan Lyles, Padres (34-43). RHP.

AGE: 27, turns 28 in mid-October.
CONTRACT: 1 years, $750,000 plus option*
STILL DUE IN 2018: $412K*
TRADE TYPE: *Controllable through 2019 at $3.5 million with a $250K buyout.
KEY STATS: 4.46 ERA, 1.275 WHIP, 67 innings, 3.1:1 K/BB ratio
CHANCE OF BEING TRADED: 33%. Cheap, but not enticing.

If the choice is between Straily, Lyles and Richard to eat some innings, I take Richard.

The Different Ones

More from Tomahawk Take

49. Michael Fulmer, Tigers (36-39). RHP.

AGE: 25
CONTRACT: $575K, team control renewable
STILL DUE IN 2018: $316K
TRADE TYPE: Fully controllable through 2022. 1st time arbitration-eligible in 2019.
KEY STATS: 4.17 ERA, 1.263 WHIP, 86 innings, 2.5:1 K/BB ratio
CHANCE OF BEING TRADED: 10%.

It is much more likely that Fulmer would be an off-season trade candidate than in July, but he’s also going to be an interesting sell. Over the past 3 seasons, his ERA has been inching upwards from 3.06 (2016) to 2.83 and 4.17 today.

Additionally, he’s missed some time in 2016-17 with 159 innings (+15 in the minors), then 165. He appears to be healthy and on pace for 190+ this season, but his results are trending in the wrong direction.

The years of control are extremely valuable, but will the results hold enough to justify paying what the Tigers want to receive? Darn fine question.

Unranked. Jacob deGrom, Mets (31-41). RHP.

AGE: 30
CONTRACT: $7.4 million, arbitration eligible
STILL DUE IN 2018: $4 million
TRADE TYPE: Controllable through 2020 season.
KEY STATS: 1.51 ERA, 0.986 WHIP, 95 innings, 4.9:1 K/BB ratio
CHANCE OF BEING TRADED: 20%.

So if you want Fulmer, don’t you want deGrom more? We talked about him just the other day, but after news that the Mets will “listen” on their players, he needs to at least be on this chart.

The Dodgers and Yankees would be pleased to get one of the starters listed here… particularly the cheap ones. Other teams (Brewers, Mariners) will likely be shopping in July as well.

I personally do not expect the Braves to delve into anything big here (they’ve already got McCarthy and Sanchez available to eat innings; anything else would be expensive) unless they shock the world and opt to go big.

Next: More DL Time for the Rookie from up North

In any case, this chart serves to identify the financial commitments required for each… but not the prospects needed, nor the intestinal fortitude that will be necessary to pull the switch.

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