Atlanta Braves getting all they need from Johan Camargo

We’re about to enter July – the month in which teams start to get serious about their plans, their realities, and their rosters. So… what about third base?

It’s June 30th and the Atlanta Braves are in first place. By 3 full games. Sure, that could change soon, as the gauntlet of games coming up will test them severely. But even if disaster strikes, they should remain strongly competitive from now through the end of the year.

That suggests the term “buyers” for July. But what to buy? Right now, you’d have to argue that the needs are as follows:

Starting pitching (since pitchers who can regularly get through even 6 innings seem to be a rare commodity)
Relief pitching (see point #1, plus there are actually a couple of weak spots that need attention)
Third base

But what if we could narrow that to just 2 needs?

A few weeks ago, I suggested that Johan Camargo had about a month+ to prove himself capable of handling the everyday chores at the hot corner. So how’s that going?

The raw numbers are not too bad:

.253 hitting, with .282 BABIP
116 wRC+ (expected runs created)
.791 OPS
17% strikeout rate (good) plus a 13% walk rate (very good)
Defensive rating (fangraphs) of +3.3
1.1 overall fWAR (fangraphs’ wins above replacement)

But there’s more – let’s isolate this to the month of June… roughly the time in which Camargo became a full-time 3B:

Average in high-leverage situations: .421 (weirdly, .077 for “medium leverage” at home, but .308 for “low” leverage, though the “small sample size” specter looms over some of this)
Overall hitting for the month: .286
Hard contact increasing (up from 21% through May to 33% for June)
As a third baseman, his wrc+ jumps to 138 and weighted on-base avg (wOBA) soars to .377.

Against His Peers

Defensively, the fangraphs’ numbers really like Matt Chapman of the A’s. His defense rating is currently +10.1.

Camargo isn’t “qualified” yet, but if he were on this chart, his +3.3 rating actually rank even with Nolan Arenado, and be just 2 notches below Anthony Rendon (Washington) for 4th place in the majors.

We mentioned Rendon (3.5), but where are some other notable third basemen defensively?

That 3.3 rating actually looks pretty good. So how about the offense?

I lowered the plate appearances requirement to get Camargo on the chart (he has 216; 3.1 per game are required for batting title qualification). But this, he ranks 18th in the majors.

Max Muncy is the only other 3B ahead of him in fWAR (6th) with as few trips to the plate (213).

Jose Ramirez of the Indians leads everybody with a crazy-high 5.1 fWAR. Mike Moustakas? 16th with 1.4.

Who Could Replace Him?

One thing about this WAR rating. It’s cumulative. so it is reasonable to ‘scale up’ Camargo’s 1.1 to give us a better apples-to-apples comparison with others, based on a full season of work.

Many of the leaders are already in the 340-360 plate appearances range. I’ll use 324 for our baseline since (a) that doesn’t blow things out of proportion and (b) the math is easier… it’s exactly 50% above Camargo’s current 216 PAs. so that gives him a scaled fWAR of 1.65… 15th overall.

Using that as a guide, who’s better and available?

Ramirez (CLE) – not available
Arenado (COL) – not available
Bregman (HOU) – not available
Chapman – special case (Oakland)
- hasn’t played since June 14 due to a minor injury, but is getting close to returning
- value is weighted toward defense, though might be very interesting; does hold his own offensively.
- Oakland probably hasn’t figured out if they are buyers or sellers. See also Blake Treinan
Suarez (CIN) – If I were them, I wouldn’t move him. Of note: his home/road splits are hardly noticeable.
Muncy (LAD) – not available
Carpenter (STL) – no
Bryant (CHC) – not available
Candelario (DET) – homers… little else. Likely not available anyway.
Rendon (WSH) – not available
Escobar (MIN) – would not expect the Twins to sell him…tough call.
Shaw (MIL) – not available
Anderson (MIA) – roughly same as Camargo right now; less power and defense)
Seager (SEA) – not available
Duffy (TAM) – lightest power of all the above (.113 ISO)
Moustakas (KC) – not looking like an upgrade
Descalso (ARZ) – not available

So there’s only 2…maybe 3… (and maybe none at all) third baseman in all of baseball that you might plausibly construe to be a trade target and still get yourself a positional upgrade. Two.

So What to Do?

More from Tomahawk Take

My own call would be to forget about third base as an area of need for the time being and concentrate on pitching: if you’re not going to upgrade the rotation, then go find 2 strong relief arms. If you do find a starting pitcher worthy of the title, then 1 relief arm is good enough.

But 3 trades? That’s stretching logic (and resources) to suggest that such deals could be pulled off this Summer while still keeping the farm fully intact.

If Oakland fades from their run (they are now +7 over .500; Atlanta is +12), then they could become sellers. Target Chapman and Treinan to help 2 positions (3B and bullpen) quickly. But this might not become clear until after the All-Star Break.
If Cincinnati is willing, then a similar 3B-plus-bullpen trade could be considered there as well.

As for anything else involving third base, the Braves would have to weigh pushing Camargo back to the bench (he would be an upgrade over Ryan Flaherty – likely the odd man out).

Such a move might also have a negative impact on Camargo, as he’s done all that he can to earn his spot… therefore not getting a true ‘upgrade’ to the position would seem to be an awkward change.

As a result: make the call… if you’re not going ‘big’, then reward Camargo by concentrating on other positions to get the Braves into playoff contention this Summer. His defense is solid and his offense has been enough.

Next: Celebrating Our Fried-om

He has earned the chance to finish the year at third.

Home/Braves News