Atlanta Braves bullpen improvement solution : Julio Teheran
By Fred Owens
The Atlanta Braves lost to the Yankees last Wednesday even though their starter struck out 10 hitters in five innings. Maybe one way to fix our bullpen pitched that day.
If Julio Teheran isn’t the Atlanta Braves most frustrating pitcher, he’s near the top of the list. Julio appeared briefly in 2011 and again in 2012 but in 2013 he stamped his name on the permanent starter list.
Pitchers came and went but Julio remained the stable, dependable arm in the rotation. In 2013 he made 30 starts, threw 185 2/3 innings. struck out 170, posted a 3.20 ERA and 1.174 WHIP. He finished with a 14-7 record and fifth place in Rookie of the Year voting.
Fans expected great things from their young, smiling future ace, and it looked like they were right to do so.
Ups and downs
Teheran’s started every opening day game since 2014. That season he improved across the board; 33 starts, 221 IP, four complete games, a 2.89 ERA, 1.081 WHIP and 186 strikeouts with just 51 walks. A strong first half earned him his first All-Star Game appearance. Everyone saw it as his breakout season. Sadly it wasn’t.
In 2015 Teheran again took the ball every five days and pitched 200 innings in 33 starts. This time his ERA jumped to 4.04 as SIERA (4.24), FIP (4.43) and DRA (5.18) portrayed an less optimistic view of his work.
The first half of 2016 saw Julio rebound with 112 2/3 innings, a 2.72 ERA, 0.932 WHIP, 105 strikeouts and 24 walks in 17 starts. He left the last game with a thigh strain and missed his next start. Julio returned for four starts (22 IP 3.24 ERA) before landing on the 15-day DL with a lat strain. When he returned the results declined.
Between August 19 and the end of the season, Julio made nine starts, threw 56 1/3 innings posted a 4.22 with and 1.331 WHIP. Last season saw more of the same, 32 starts, 4.49 ERA (4.59 FIP, 5.52 DRA) in 188 1/3 innings with a 1.370 WHIP. Sun Trust Park looked like his issue but this season the movie’s repeated itself and the location hasn’t mattered.
What happened to Atlanta Braves Ace
First, Julio was never a full-blown ace. He filled the number one starter slot since 2013 but never produced the consistency needed to become an ace.
If I knew for certain why Julio’s velocity dropped I’d be making more money than I am. I’m said more than once I believe his shoulder is part of the issue. Damaged shoulders don’t always cause significant pain.
You can see he moved his release point around every year after 2014 based on data from the Texas Leaguers site. None of those years achieved the same success as 2014.
The Braves have this data and while I believe it supports the shoulder theory, I’ll punt diagnosis detail. While Julio’s release point moved, his ability to get strikeouts remained consistent.
Watching the middle of the Yankee lineup flail aimlessly at Julio’s best pitches, it occurred to me that part of the answer to the bullpen issue already signed an affordable, long-term contract.