Atlanta Braves first round pick unsigned as deadline looms

Why worry about Stewart

I wrote a couple of times that I believed the negotiations were stalled but expected them to work out a deal. Then the Callis post appeared and tonight this Tweet floated down my timeline and landed with a thud.

Jim Powell would not have said that if he weren’t certain of his source. That means another rule comes into play, once again from my tracker post.

"Failing to sign a player selected rounds in one through ten results in the loss picks slot value from their total pool."

Should Stewart remain unsigned, the Atlanta Braves pool drops to $3,286,600. A little basic math shows that they are now $53,400 over their allowed penalty-free spending allowance.  That $53,400 will cost them $40,050 in penalties.

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.As they are already over their allowance why not spend what they want and pay the fine? Because the penalties become Draconian over 5%, so bad that not even the richest teams won’t dare to do it.

That means that the could spend 5% more than their reduced pool or an additional $164,330 and pay $123,247.50 in penalties. In other words, the extra $164,33 will end up being $287,577.50.

Since the Braves already committed $53,400, they could offer another $110,930 in bonus money to Hess, Victor Vodnik or any of the other unsigned picks; and they probably will.

It’s only money honey

Even with penalties, their total outlay remains below the money they allocated for the draft. The only difference is MLB gets some of it instead of the draft picks

If Stewart fails to sign, he gave up $4M. Maybe he makes it up in two years when he’s once again draft eligible. If that’s his choice I wish him luck.

The Braves lost the player they felt met the standard of best available as the eighth selection in round one. They will pick up a compensation pick after round one next year and actually spend less money

That’s a wrap

The calculations are based on data published by MLB and implementation of the rules as I read them.  If the math isn’t right, blame Excel.

Frankly, I couldn’t turn down the money. I’ve always believed in myself – bet on myself often – and been right often enough – to keep doing it. If I had his talent and wanted a major league career, I’d jump at the best offer I could get.

I know, and he must as well, the risks a pitcher takes in today’s game and how quickly a career can vanish. This isn’t a question of talent or belief in your ability, it’s a high-risk bet on the continued health of his arm, shoulder, and wrist.

Off the field, he’s just as susceptible to the hazards of everyday life as the rest of us. It’s true those dangers would all be there if he took the bonus, but should something happen he’d have the $4M to fall back on.

Next: Keeping track

I read that Brady Aiken says he’d do it all again exactly as before knowing how it would turn out. That’s easy to say when you know it can’t happen. I know he believes it. I don’t.