Atlanta Braves lineup: Does Ozzie Albies continue leading off

The volcanic Atlanta Braves offense that erupted for so many runs early this season suddenly went dormant on the Fourth of July.

Aside from a random outburst against a weak Toronto team, the Atlanta Braves offense fizzled like a defective firework until the last game before the All-Star Break.

Always a slow starter, Braves center fielder and erstwhile leadoff man Ender Inciarte has stumbled to the worst start of his career. Alex looked at his start in-depth a couple of days ago.

Twitter Critters ( © me) know beyond any doubt that replacing Inciarte fixes everything. They can’t agree on the replacement, just that the act of replacing him fixes the lineup. It doesn’t.

An objective look at correcting the issue requires examining the roster as a whole, so I’ll start there..

Atlanta Braves 40-man roster resembles tissue paper

Saying pitchers dominate the Atlanta Braves 40-man roster understates the situation a bit. The current roster contains:

• 28 pitchers – four 60-day DL and three 10-day DL
• 2 catchers
• 1 first baseman
• 1 second baseman
• 1 natural third baseman
• 1 shortstop
• 2 utility infielders
• 2 utility infielder/outfielders
• 6 outfielders

Some of those players don’t belong on the major league roster of a good team. They’re there because the Braves have no one better. That can’t be fixed quickly or easily.

The 25-man roster generally operates with eight relief pitchers, five starters and a four-man bench including the backup catcher. Currently the bench seats five but that changes after the All-Star break when Luiz Gohara or Max Fried rejoin the rotation.

The non-catcher bench players normally available to skipper Brian Snitker – Danny Santana, Ryan Flaherty and Charlie Culberson – all fall into the utility category. In spite of Culberson’s clutch hitting this year, those names don’t make a good relief pitcher take a step back to regroup.

Who’s fault was it?

Everything starts at the top of the lineup and Inciarte’s slow start led to call Ronald Acuña’s up.

Acuña’s arrival saw Snitker slip him into the two spot allowing Ozzie Albies to become the leadoff man.  In the next 25 games, the Braves scored 110 runs and allowed just 88. That’s a +22 run differential as the Braves averaged 4.4 runs/game and allowed 3.52 runs/game. As a result, the Braves posted a 15-10 record that solidified their hold on first place. That stretch ended with the injury to the young left fielder’s knee

Acuña’s injury forced him onto the 10-day DL. That resulted in Inciarte’s move back into the leadoff spot ahead of Albies. In the next 45 games, the Braves scored 190 runs and allowed 186 runs. The run differential dropped to four and fans pointed at Inciarte as the biggest flop.

That’s logical, Inciarte did struggle and when hitting leadoff, it’s obvious when you fail. Fans didn’t notice because it takes a calculator to do so,  but the Braves averaged more runs/game in this stretch (4.5) than before. The team hit .267 with RISP during this stretch; the league as a whole hit .252 in the first half.

The difference shows on the other side of the ledger. While the Braves defense remained solid, starting pitching didn’t.  As a result, opposing teams scored 4.4 run/game. When you average as many runs allowed as scored, you’re a .500 team. In this stretch, the Braves were exactly that, posting a 21-21 record.

I’m not suggesting the Braves should ignore Inciarte’s slump, merely that there’s more than enough blame to go around.