Atlanta Braves and some thoughts about the first half of 2018

It has indeed been an exciting ride thus far for fans of the Braves.  Happily, there’s more 2018 baseball still to come.

The All-Star break gives the Atlanta Braves a chance to rest and recover a bit from a hectic 3+ months before returning on Friday for what hopes to be a nice finish.

It is also time to reflect on a few things that have happened thus far in the 2018 season.  Here are some thoughts that are worthy of mention.

MOVEMENT

At the 2017 All-Star Break, the Atlanta Braves were 42-45… still giving fans a glint of hope.  After the break, though:  30-45.

For several teams of interest, here are the plus/minus changes in terms of “games above/below .500” since that point last season.  Some of them may surprise…

• Braves:  3 under .500 to 10 above (Net +13)
• Phillies 29 under to 11 over (Net +40)
• Nationals  -16
• Mets  -8
• Marlins -11
• Cubs  +19
• Dodgers -22
• Brewers  +3
• Cardinals  +4
• Arizona  -8
• Rockies  -7

Sure:  that’s a strong showing from the Braves, but what Philadelphia has accomplished has got to be something akin to historic.

Still… you gotta finish from here, and the Braves had significant trouble doing that in 2017… for a variety of fixable reasons.

MANNY MACHADO

Several thoughts are running around in my head about this deal that the Dodgers pulled off:

• The Orioles have basically set the market for the rental player this Summer… and it isn’t that particularly high.  They got 1 really good player and 4 lottery picks (with some of those having essentially no shot are paying off.

I’m not the first to express this next thought, but it’s relevant here…

• The Braves will have to see these new-look Dodgers fairly quickly in a 4 game series… quickly enough that the honeymoon of this match will still be in progress.  While I’m thrilled that the Phillies didn’t get him, we might wish they had, to some extent.
• I am surprised that LA took on the entire rest of Machado’s salary.  So before that, LA was thought to be under the luxury tax threshhold by $15.5 million.  Now they’re at $9 million, not counting any performance/appearance bonuses that might need to be paid.
• Speculation was that LA would have to dump a salary to afford Machado.  So far that hasn’t happened, but it might be worth watching for another Dodger deal to shed some salary.
• As much as Dodger fans will want to re-up Machado for 2018, they still have Justin Turner (3B) and Corey Seager around… so re-signing him means (possibly) that Seager goes to 2nd when Utley retires?

It will be interesting to see what Machado gets this off-season.  Teams will have to decide whether his offensive production is ‘valid’ since he’s 140-points-plus higher in OPS this season than his career numbers have shown and nearly 90 higher than any single season’s results.

OZZIE ALBIES

I’m scanning National League stats (yeah, I’m a nerd) and something occurs to me:  Ozzie Albies has the 4th-highest fangraphs-WAR rating of the entire league (checking just the 79 qualified hitters, but he only drops to 6th when you include all 620 NL hitters regardless of how many plate appearances they had.

But along with that 3.4 fWAR, he’s also the youngest hitter with anything above 1.5.

Much has been said lately about Juan Soto of the Nationals, but Albies is still ahead of Soto’s pace:  Albies has just more than double Soto’s plate appearances and well more than double the production (and roughly has the identical homer pace).

More from Tomahawk Take

• Braves News: Braves re-sign Jackson Stephens
• Braves News: Braves prospect rankings, Correa deal with Mets at risk, more
• Why the Atlanta Braves won’t extend Max Fried
• Atlanta Braves 2023 Preseason Top 30 Prospects List: 1-5
• Braves News: Braves acquire Diaz, moves around the division, more

Let’s go further.  There have been 43,476 seasons (counting this one) of players in the majors while aged 27 or less.

• The youngest was Billy Geer (14 years old in 1874).
• The youngest to homer was Phil Cavarretta for the Cubs in 1934 (aged 17; he hit 8 in 1935)
• The most home runs hit by any player 21 years old or under was Eddie Mathews – of the Braves – in 1953.  He was 21 then and hit 47 dingers.
• At age 20, Mike Trout his 30 long balls

Albies – that player with a 20-30 scouting grade for in-game power – has 20.  He is on pace for 34-35 dingers.  But let’s suggest ’30’ for the moment.

Here’s the company Albies will be joining when and if he hits #30 this season… all-time:

Names you don’t see on this list:  Hank Aaron, Babe Ruth, Willie Mays… you know:  many of the all-time HR leaders.

Next: 5 Keys to Victory

Albies has been a bit of a dynamo this year… but he’s approaching a figure that only few his age have done.  Ever.