Atlanta Braves trade rumors: Braves seeking a controllable starting pitcher
The Headliner
Atlanta might be looking at Cole Hamels who is starting tonight for Texas. Bowman is thinking Jake Diekman, but I am personally thinking that this is burying the lead.
Diekman has a 3.28 ERA as a relief pitcher, but also has a 5 walks-per-9-innings rate for a WHIP (Walks and Hits per Inning Pitched) of 1.43, which is unacceptably high – even for an experienced 31-year-old.
However… he’s been pitching a lot better as of late: only 2 walks in his last 8 outings and never miore than 1 all the way back to April 11th. He has yielded runs only 3 times since Memorial Day. He’s also left-handed, experienced and cheap.
But now let’s talk about Hamels. His contract has been the barrier for … mostly everybody. He’s owed at least $6 million in 2019 (that’s his option buyout) in addition to the balance of his $23.5 million deal this season (roughly 38% of that would be due after this week).
If an acquiring team opted to pick up his 2019 option, that’s a $20 million burden – or $14 million above the buyout price.
There’s another gotcha: Hamels has a no-trade codicil on his contract that names two-thirds of the league. But guess what?
"Rosenthal quotes Jon Morosi as saying that the teams that he can not veto a trade to are the Mariners, the Cardinals, the Nationals, the Astros, the Cubs, the Phillies, the Braves, the Royals and the Rays — the first seven of those teams are currently playoff contenders, though it remains to be seen whether they all stay in the playoff hunt, and not all seven are going to be in the market for a pitcher like Hamels."
There was a report earlier tonight on MLB Trade Rumors that the Nationals (named above) were checking out Hamels tonight as well. But their interest may not be substantial, according to a later report:
"Of course, the Nats do have someone on hand to watch Hamels in action tonight, as Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News reports on Twitter. The Braves, Cubs, Phillies, Yankees, and Diamondbacks do as well."
Among these teams, the Phillies and Braves may be in a unique position when compared against others:
- Both clubs have the money to spend, which would reduce their cost in terms of prospects
- Both are on the ‘cannot block’ list
- Neither are running up against luxury tax thresholds
Depending on your point of view, Hamels qualifies as either a rental trade piece or a controllable, having that option year. Either way, there’s going to be a lot less competition for his services, for the price of accepting a trade for his no-trade teams might be a guarantee of his 2019 option.
The bad news? Hamels is getting lit up tonight by Oakland: 5 earned runs through 3 innings (6 hits and 2 walks as well).
Before tonight, he carried an ERA of 4.36, which is slightly above a 4.20 recorded in 2017. He was last “good” in 2016, having a 3.32 ERA mark. Tonight has (thus far) raised that 4.36 number above 4.60.
UPDATE: 5 innings and 7 earned runs. 4.72 ERA now.
Moving from the American League to the NL should help… perhaps by a half-run or slightly better, but there might be more to the numbers than evident at first glance:
Check these opponent batting averages in 2018:
- Yankees: .160
- Indians: .200
- Angels: .200
- Red Sox: .208
- Astros: .213
- Oakland: .220 (okay, that’s before tonight)
- Dodgers: .238
Oddly, he clearly has done his best work against the best teams… and vice versa. The lowly Tigers, Padres, White Sox, and Blue Jays have all lit him up. But not those big-offense successful clubs.
Tonight’s outing could actually get the price in the Braves’ favor… again, this is speculation, but don’t be shocked if Anthopoulos doesn’t try to land both Hamels and Diekman in the next couple of days (Hamels would be scheduled to pitch again on Saturday against the Astros).
Other options
- Marcus Stroman – 2 more arbitration years: his price will be sky high
- Jacob deGrom – oddly, Mets’ ownership is said to be weighing making him available as perhaps a move to pacify a rabid fan base that thinks the team should rebuild. Illogical, but if he does come onto the market, then everything pivots to New York.
- Chris Archer – controllable through 2021, but has been merely average over the past 3 seasons. Admittedly, I personally advocated for such a trade in recent months and years, but the Rays may have waited too long here.
- J.A. Happ – rental, and might be a solid candidate for a second starting pitcher acquisition, should the Braves opt to go there.
ABOUT THE BULLPEN:
I noted that the price for controllable relievers is high – very high. There are myriad relief pitchers available, though… lots of rentals. Whether it’s Diekman or somebody else, I expect this:
- Pay for controllable starters
- Grab cheap rental relievers
- find a cheap bench bat – Nick Castellanos kind of fits that profile (though still due about $2.5 million)
Whew – that’s enough for now. But the next few days will very likely be exciting.