Atlanta Braves newest reliever Brad Brach: what to expect

Peripherals you say?

I spent some time staring at Brach’s numbers on Fangraphs and Texas Leaguers. Brach’s K-rate matches his career mark pretty well and his HR/FB rate sits below league average.

Aside from an elevated walk rate, he looks pretty close to his baseball card in almost everything. In fact, his groundball and infield fly ball rates are up. While examining minutia I did see where that high BAbip came from.

• Out of zone swing rate down
• Whiff rate down
• In-zone swing rate down
• In-zone contact rate up
• K% down
• Hard contact rate up – it’s above league average so not a product of the launch angle revolution
• Line drive rate up

Let’s translate that.

Batters aren’t swinging at as many balls in or out of the zone as they did before 2016. When they do swing they make contact more often and hit the ball hard generating the kind of contact most likely to be a hit; line drives.

Every pitch except his four-seamer saw at least a 4% increase in-play rates. If batters are putting balls in play harder on all of your pitches including your split, BAbip against is going to go up. In the old days, they’d have said he’s ‘wild in the zone’ and batters hit those balls.

The Atlanta Braves knew this and some of the Braves pitching braintrust not named Hernandez also know Brach”

While they don’t get down in the trenches every day, the GM obviously discussed Brach with them.  He told Do-Hyoung Park, ”we talked about Brach for a while” so they obviously believe they can help the pitcher make adjustments.

Coaches make a difference

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Atlanta Braves fans notice the work Ron Washington put in with our infielders and Chipper Jones mentioned his coaches many times during his speech.  There’s an interesting, if perhaps coincidental, coaching issue in the fringes of this trade.

Brad Brach had his best season in 2016.  That year he posted a  2.05 ERA, 2.92 FIP and 2.99 SIERA supported by a 1.04. He put up his best numbers strikeouts and walk numbers (10.48 per nine, 2.85 BB  per nine) and held batters to a .201/.264/.313/.577 line in 79 IP.

After that season the Braves let Roger McDowell walk and he became Baltimore’s pitching coach. Since that time Brach’s numbers sank like a rock as did the numbers of the entire Oriole staff.

In 2016 the Orioles sat eighth in the AL with a 4.33 team ERA and 15.4 fWAR.

In 2017 they sank to 29th in the AL with a 4.97 ERA and 7.8 fWAR and they currently have a 4.82 staff ERA.

Maybe it’s related and maybe it’s a coincidence, but I never believed McDowell did well by the Braves staff.  Brach returning to anything close to his previous form won’t prove anything either.  It will be interesting to see what happens.

That’s a wrap

UPDATE:  Brandon McCarthy was transferred to the 60-day disabled list to make a spot for Brach on the 40-man roster.  We’ll learn about the corresponding 25-man active roster move later today as the Braves get ready to entertain the Marlins.

No one tried to sugar coat this as some kind of panacea for the Atlanta Braves bullpen woes. Anthopoulos made it clear in the previously-linked interview they saw Brach as an opportunity to grab a talented player for nearly nothing and turn him around.

"“No guarantees or assurances, but we think there is some upside based on his success and his track record, what he has done.”"

Other moves are clearly in process. Rumors about Luiz Gohara’s availability for a top of the line return bubbled under for a few months before breaking out today.

Whatever happens, we’ll keep you informed here on The Take.