Atlanta Braves newest starter Kevin Gausman: What to expect

The Atlanta Braves added a much-needed starter to a rotation that stumbled a bit going into the Break. What should fans expect from the new right-hander?

Before the Atlanta Braves snagged him on Tuesday afternoon, the Orioles selected Kevin Gausman out of LSU as their first pick – fourth overall – in the 2012 draft. He skipped rookie ball entirely, appeared in two games in low A – ball, and five games in A+ ball that year.

Gausman started 2013 in AA; eight games later found himself in Baltimore pitching against Toronto. Five starts later he made his first AAA appearance only to be called back to Baltimore before his second AAA start.

Between 2013 and the beginning of 2016, he made twenty trips between AAA and the majors. I’m not sure how a player figures anything out in that situation. I know some do but it certainly short-circuits a development program.

Whether lack of a guided development plan or simply a bad one, the Braves’ newest starter sports outstanding stuff but lacks consistency. Billy Ripken commented on MLB Network’s MLB Tonight (so no link, sorry) after the deadline passed that he’s watched Gausman pitch and wondered how anyone ever got a hit off him. But hit him they do and often they hit him hard.

The pitches

Brooks Baseball shows Gausman with six pitches however he leans hard on his fourseam fastball and splitter. From 2014 through 2017 he appeared to search for a third pitch he could rely on. He tried a change, sinker, and slider before apparently settling on the slider.  Both his low 80s slider and split – also low 80s – get extremely high whiff per swing rates.

He can blow one past a hitter at 99 even late into a game but takes his foot off the accelerator to try to control the beast more effectively with inconsistent results.

GM Alex Anthopoulos acknowledged that work was needed in an interview with Chris Vivlamore of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution.

"We think there is upside there . . . We think there is some upside to unlock some of the potential that made him a top pick."

Steve Phillips speaking on XM Radio’s draft special called this the “we’re smarter than you” strategy.  When discussing Oriole pitching, teams with an advanced analytics department – something Orioles are just beginning to embrace – should have a good chance of making improvements.

Scouting and the trade

Following drafts day various outlets published breakdowns of the trades. The Gausman trade received high marks from all I read. Even Mark Bradley gave Alex Anthopoulos an A+ (should that be an ‘AA+’?) for the trade.

Dan Szymborski writing for Fangraphs liked the deal as well and offered some scouting information.

"Gausman is not an ace. . .he shows glimpses of it at times . . . doesn’t throw as hard now. . . still has a mid-90s fastball that can touch (higher), a splitter that can make hitters look helpless . . . and a slider of varying quality."

Baseball Prospectus – subscription required – suggested he uses his heater too much. The numbers show that while he dropped it to 59% this season, he still uses it 15% more than Jacob deGrom and 5% more than Noah Syndergaard.

I put his control issues down to his pitch selection – and therefore lack of trust – in his slider. He used a straight change when he started with Baltimore and still breaks it out now and then. Based on the way the Braves encourage pitchers to embrace the change, he’ll probably start using it more often.