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Atlanta Braves Morning Chop: you’re welcome Kevin Seitzer

By Alan Carpenter

NEW YORK, NY - AUGUST 03: Ronald Acuna Jr. #13 of the Atlanta Braves celebrates after hitting a double in the fifth inning against the New York Mets at Citi Field on August 3, 2018 in the Flushing neighborhood of the Queens borough of New York City. (Photo by Mike Stobe/Getty Images)
NEW YORK, NY - AUGUST 03: Ronald Acuna Jr. #13 of the Atlanta Braves celebrates after hitting a double in the fifth inning against the New York Mets at Citi Field on August 3, 2018 in the Flushing neighborhood of the Queens borough of New York City. (Photo by Mike Stobe/Getty Images) /
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Nothing can substitute for on the field performance.  But it seems possible that we might have encouraged a slight nudge in the right direction.

Every now and then, we’ll get one right.  The Atlanta Braves struggled just a bit coming out of the All-Star break, going 2-5 in those first games.  Of course playing the Dodgers had a lot to do with that, especially as they were buoyed by their recent acquisition of Manny Machado.

In the days that have followed, of course, the Braves are now riding a 5-game win streak.  Sure:  that’s largely against the Marlins and Mets, but this current run does match their season high win streak (April 28-May 3 vs. Philly and the Mets).

During the All-Star break, we published in these pages a list of 5 Keys for the Braves as the season’s traditional second half got underway.  They included these:

  • Ronald Acuña must adjust
  • Get 2 bullpen pieces
  • Get Better production at the leadoff spot

The bullpen angle was dealt with directly at the trade deadline:  Brad Brach and Jonny Venters.

Those other two were resolved in one bold move.

The Adjustment

Here’s what we pointed out about Acuña, though, as taken from notes on his BrooksBaseball.net page:

"Against Fastballs (441 seen), he has had a very aggressive approach at the plate (-0.15 c) with a high likelihood to swing and miss (25% whiff/swing)."

Further… this time from me:

"It’s the fastball [whiff rate] that’s a puzzling development, for big league hitters should hit fastballs with regularity… especially since this is the most common pitch."

We had the breakdown in there as well:

  • 25% whiff rate on fastballs (which he was seeing 2/3rds of the time)… characterized as a “high rate” compared to the average
  • 33% on curves (at league average)
  • 25% on changeups (below average)

I did a little research… and frankly, I can’t tell you whether anyone else was noticing this trend, but I didn’t see this info being discussed… but apparently Braves’ hitting guru Kevin Seitzer did notice.

I can’t quote this directly, because it came from Dave O’Brien’s work in The Athletic yesterday (subscription required), but here’s the paraphrased gist of what he learned from a chat with Seitzer, which was also explained by Chop and Joe on the TV broadcast last night:

  • Seitzer was reading an article ‘over the break’ – doesn’t recall the source
  • He mentioned reading about swing-and-miss rates for Acuna against multiple types of pitches – but especially the fastball

Hmmmm… well, regardless of how he found out, Seitzer then went to work and started immediately to get Acuña to realize what was going on… and to correct the problem.

It hasn’t taken long to get results.

We’re gonna need more baseballs

The Dodgers’ pitching still caused the Braves’ new leadoff man some problems (1 for 15 in that series; the hit being a home run), but against almost everybody else, he’s been destroying baseballs again.

More from Tomahawk Take

Since July 20 (including that Dodger series):

  • 17 for 46 (.370)
  • 6 walks
  • 4 doubles
  • 1 triple
  • 4 homers
  • .453 OBP
  • .761 slugging
  • 1.250 OPS

I won’t pretend that Acuna doesn’t still have a significant strikeout rate… almost 29% of plate appearances in that same time span.  But it’s hard to argue with the overall results.

Overall, Brooks now pegs his whiff rates at 24%, 28%, and 23% for fastballs, breaking pitches, and change-ups respectively.  All of those are lower than they were from just 2 weeks ago.

Here’s a link to the Brooks whiff chart for Acuña if you’d like to keep up with his progress.

For sure, if pitchers are told that he’s now pounding their fastballs again, then they will be making the adjustment to more secondary offerings… and in turn, it will then be on Acuña to adjust again as part of this on-going cat-and-mouse game that we call “baseball”.

So in 1 fell swoop, the Braves resolved 2 key problems:  Acuña and the leadoff spot.  The bullpen was also dealt with in short order.

dark. Next. A trade we'd make again - all O'Day long

Now they are taking care of business.  You’re welcome.

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